Small Cap Mining: March Review

Still Going Strong

Good Morning Team.

I’m writing this on the same day that the Financial Times has published an article entitled:

“UK small caps 'most unloved' stocks in the world”

I will caveat that this opinion is sourced from ABRDN, whose CEO continues to pretend that cosplaying as some kind of disemvoweled Trappist monk is a good marketing idea.

While it’s possible that the FT was trying to help by pointing out the ridiculous value disconnects, it did feel a bit like the editor was pointing directly at me and whispering, ‘Look at this poor bastard.’

Possibly because of all the undervalued small caps, those in the junior resource space are least loved.

But don’t worry. When the bull market comes back, all these underappreciated assets will roar.

Now where were we? Ah yes, your March review into my junior resource picks for 2025.

Starting with the macro.

The President of the Free World is one maddeningly tricky fucker, with all the predictability of a raccoon on Red Bull with a tax evasion charge.

Launch a shitcoin for his inauguration, then Trump and Dump it? Call Zelenskyy a dictator - then attempt to gaslight the global population?

That shit in the Oval Office clearly takes the cake - but I don’t want to talk politics in depth. All I want to be clear on is that - at present - the market is taking what Big D says seriously, whenever he says it.

This has implications for microchips, critical minerals, Taiwan, Ukraine - everything. But like the boy who cried wolf, at some point, nobody is going believe his bullshit.

Until then though, enjoy the trading. He certainly is. I can guarantee you that Trump’s No1 concern is enriching himself and his circle (meet the new boss, same as the old boss), and knows that he can play calls and puts to his heart’s content because he controls the political narrative that moves the major US indices.

Of course, the markets are efficient and will figure out his game. They’re just grappling with the fact that the US President is the spiritual hybrid of Super Hans and Jay Cartwright.

Tariffs could well crush the real US economy, and if Trump pisses off China too much, then tit-for-tats will escalate.

For what it’s worth, I also think he may try to Pump and Dump Bitcoin with a US BTC strategic reserve.

If it happens, remember this: Pigs get fat. Hogs get slaughtered. And if you want to understand the longer-term bull v bear case for Bitcoin, read here.

But of course, the madness may all be a charade designed to make European populations more compliant when it comes to increased defence spending. Because this is going to equal either more tax rises, or further spending cuts elsewhere.

Which is a hard sell.

To anyone investing/trading in stocks based on hopes for peace in Ukraine - it might happen this year, or could be a decade away. Hopes will ebb and flow.

I cannot give advice, but have had several messages over the weekend from people who have put more than they could afford into Eurasia, and are now sick with worry.

If you’re losing sleep over a stock, maybe reconsider. Insomnia should be reserved for existential dread and binge-watching Netflix, not junior miners.

This is a very high risk sector. Please be careful. Assessing your personal risk tolerance and using risk management tools is key. They’re there for a reason.

On a positive note, I will note that critical minerals (and precious metals including GOLD) are now finally, finally coming front and centre of political minds. Better late than never, but it’s only a matter of time before the big boys realise they need to own the majors - and the juniors follow shortly thereafter.

Stringent Chinese export controls on copper are only a matter of time.

I remain of the view that the S&P 500 will fall from 5,919 points at the opening of the last day of 2024 to 4,735 points at some point over 2025.

The index has now given up most of its gains year-to-date, and a combination of overvaluation, resurging inflation, and political incompetence is going to see this happen.

Nvidia’s post-results sell-off after beating every expectation should be warning enough - though others think the party will continue.

On a related note, Tesla is toast. Check out the sales in Europe and China. Musk is going to struggle soon, and I would not be surprised to see an investor-led lawsuit sometime in the near future.

It’s also great fun to see Bitcoin sink a little for Saylor. Despite his protestations, Strategy has gone too far, too fast, and this could all come crashing down if we’re about to enter the next crypto winter.

History tends to rhyme. If you think another 98% fall can’t happen - think again. The party might restart of course, but the music will one day stop.

To the miners:

The Golden Trio

Sovereign Metals remains the best stock on the AIM market. I could wax lyrical once again about the first rutile find in decades, or the magical graphite that’s apparently been designed by an intelligent creator, but the share price is doing the talking for us.

We’re up to 44.7p, a 15.8% rise this month - and 19.2% year-to-date. Three key things to note here:

1. The market cap is still well below the NPV of Kasiya, which has been effectively certified by Rio Tinto in the optimised PFS - you’re still early (though I recognise this is easy for me to say with a 22p average).

2. SVML shares on the ASX are constantly trading at a premium to the UK, even as we reach all-time-highs. While it’s tricky to take advantage of the possible arbitrage, this does mean you can get the shares ‘on sale’ at times.

3. As things stand, the DFS is out in the not too distant future and then Rio will need to play its hand. There may well be dips and volatility, but when the portals open, only the Avengers who heed the call are going to enjoy the profits.

Greatland Gold is up circa 2.4% this month and 33.4% year-to-date at 8.3p. I think the stock should again trade sideways over March - while the expansionary Telfer drilling came back with some superlative results [including 14.3m @ 9.06 g/t Au and 8.57% Cu (19.34 g/t AuEq) from 290.4m], the bottom line is that after a rise like this, there will be an element of profit and position taking.

Profits - because that’s how a market works - but position taking because if the ASX listing goes ahead as planned next quarter, 10p in my mind is all but guaranteed. However, this will be a case of steady as she goes, and GGP may even dip slightly in March as the profit-takers are here now - while the position takers for the next leg up may wait for April.

The good news is that as Shaun has always suspected, Telfer appears to be the same as all the other major gold producing mines in Australia, with much more gold, and - like Shadow in Homeward Bound - much more life than the majors give it credit for.

Then we come to Amaroq Minerals. The stock has given up its gains and has fallen by 6.3% year-to-date to 98.4p - possibly a combination of Trump-Greenland euphoria wearing off, muted news flow since first gold in November, and possibly the harsh Greenlandic winter.

I covered the stock very recently, so would rather not go into too much detail - except to point out the recently announced world-class grades, alongside the MRE update and 2025 exploration plans to be shared later this month.

Production numbers will likely come in early Q2 - but remember, AMRQ is commissioning, so has until year-end to hit that magic 300 tons per day.

I think anyone now investing has a very good price - but again, only you live with your wins and losses.

Overall though, I’m up 15.4% on the three so far this year. I’m staying in all three for the big paydays - so will be back to check in again next month.

The Explorers

Arc Minerals is up 11.5% year-to-date, while Rome is down circa 20%. These stocks both zip up and down between well established support and resistance levels, and as I am invested in both for long-term (potentially lucrative) returns - I’m not too stressed about the month-to-month movement.

Though it would be nice to see some rises in March.

Arc reported highly positive assays early in February which are directly comparable to the early assays found at nearby Sentinel. We’re on the hunt for a Tier 1 deposit, and the hunt is going to ramp up.

While we wait for assays from the new priority target (though this may be more about the associated geology than grade/length), the company should be releasing Anglo’s drilling plans this month.

For reference, and I hate to keep banging the drum on this, but Anglo is contractually required to spend $24 million in the first three years of the JV.

Year one is over, with a spend of perhaps $3 million.

$21 million going into the ground, in less than two years, in one of the world’s most prospective copper territories, is alone worth more than the current £21 million market capitalisation.

The share price remains near the bottom end of the range because when the rainy season hits in Zambia, everything stops for a few months. Late April and we should get cracking.

And remember, every major worth a damn is heading back to the country - with several yet to announce.

Rome Resources continues to contend with well-reported unrest (and worse) in the region - though remains insulated from the violence by significant distance and jungle foliage.

Results from hole #18, which saw over 100 metres of visible copper mineralisation are back any day now. But the real prize is tin grades and lengths similar to those at nearby Alphamin.

Once again, it’s the same exploration team and they are proving the model. The theory remains that tin we want to see is there at depths - and they are now drilling to those depths.

It’s a marathon not a sprint.

Both stocks remain very well funded, which is crucial for any explorer.

The dealmakers

I covered Asiamet, Alien, Blencowe, Bezant & Guardian a few days ago and nothing material has changed.

Consider the coverage if you missed it.

Asiamet is down 7%. Blencowe is up 5%. Bezant is up 7.5%. Guardian is up 16.8%. Alien is down 22%. All year-to-date, and once again, these picks are together flat.

I guess the only question is who will get a deal over the line - or at least announce one - in March. It’s probably a toss-up between GMET and UFO, with Guardian potentially angling for funding for Tempiute from their new quarter-owner, and Alien promising a JV for Elizabeth Hill (with cash) by the end of the quarter.

Ideally both.

It’s also probably a good idea to add Energy Pathways to the dealmaker shortlist after that recent RNS. Management have told you that investment is coming in at a multiple to the current share price.

It doesn’t get much more stark than that.

The Power Prophecy

At the start of the year, I was fairly confident that Guardian would have a strong Q1 and parent Power Metal a strong Q2.

I do feel sorry for POW - both in my portfolio, but also for fellow investors, and management - it’s done everything right and the market refuses to reward the company.

This is by no means a unique situation, but having divested roughly half of its GMET holding, Power will have (after paying off debts etc) around £7 million in CASH, exposure to potentially >£16 million in the uranium JV in Athabasca in an upsiode scenario, 20% of GMET worth circa £9 million, and then all sorts of projects all over the world - including carefully laid plans in Saudi Arabia.

What I find most gratifying about Power is that the company has effectively managed to ignore brokers for cash-raising purposes - and it’s extremely unlikely you will wake up to a discounted raise.

As I said at the start of the year, the most important thing in this market is cash - or good access to it, such as through a near-term deal. POW now has it in spades.

What this capital does is give the company breathing room - and the ability to continue developing its business in Saudi. And to negotiate deals from a position of strength.

I remain of the the view that Power will tag 30p in Q2, though a lot of this hinges on getting the uranium drilling up and running expediently. If this drags on, then the re-rate may come in Q3.

Unless Sean has something up his sleeve that shocks the stock awake.

Jubilee and African Pioneer

Jubilee has given up all its ytd gains and is now flat for the year. This is more than a tad frustrating - and it feels like the stock is perennially on the edge of greatness.

The company is now processing new high-grade copper feed material at its Roan concentrator facility, with this new material exceeding 1.6% copper - which is much higher grade than you might expect.

The key thing for Jubilee is ramping up copper production as fast as possible after several false starts. Get this right, revenue will fly, and the share price will look after itself.

On a fundamental level, JLP shares are once again exceptional value.

African Pioneer has now raised capital at 1p - to the tune of £420,000 - we’re getting closer with Ongombo, but I remain of the view that the near-term value add will come with dealmaking elsewhere in the portfolio.

Again, clearly not one to throw the kitchen sink at - but the positioning remains strong.

Helium Volatility

At the start of the year, I noted that:

‘The helium stocks are as volatile as the gas itself, and there are long established price patterns before, during and after drilling. There is no shame in trading these.'

But now I think the time to buy these three is here.

Helix is going for production at Rudyard - and further work at Ingomar. I uncovered evidence of large reserves at Rudyard earlier this month and think it was have an excellent March. Back above 20p incoming.

Hopefully :)

For Pulsar, March is flow rate month. Deep breaths everyone. I think the chances are good, but it’s either there or not.

These two haven’t moved much in 2025, but this is not surprising for either, as both have much to prove in the coming weeks.

Predator is down around 38% having raised another couple of million this month - and now it’s time for THE MOU-5 Titanosaurus. The recovery could be rapid, and I have averaged down from an originally small position. The prize is possibly as big as 5.9 Trillion Cubic Feet, and the stock is being watched closely.

For both Pulsar and Predator, it’s a binary event. Both are at very decent prices given the risk-reward, but you there is an element of chance which means it’s very hard, as an analyst, to make definitive predictions.

Nail-biting stuff though, and not for the faint-hearted.

The Moonshot

Emmerson shot up to 1.85p during the middle of February but has since fallen to 1.47p. This means it’s now only up………….

100%

Bitches.

Cash out now if you’re chicken.

For reference, GreenX, Zenith and Panthera are also all going to win, but this one’s my favourite.

The bottom line

• The golden trio - which you can judge me on at the end of the year - are up by more than 15%.

• The dealmakers are treading water, which is to be expected while we wait for the deals to materialise.

• The Power Prophecy has been scheduled for next quarter, with some slippage possible.

• There were gains to bank with JLP but if not, you’re flat and ready for the next rise. AFP - we’re again waiting, but the time will come

• The Heliums are all approaching show time. I expect next month’s update will be combustible.

• The Moonshot has left Earth’s atmosphere. You can parachute out now, or strap in and see if we make it to Mars - or just explode spectacularly like a budget SpaceX launch.

In other news, I think Central Asia Metals and Afentra are looking good for March rises - it may be that they will need to be added to the long-term list, but for now, both stocks have decent fundamentals, low valuations…and a bit of that Twitter buzz that has been lacking in recent years.

That’s all for now.