Good Morning Team.
It’s now been three months since the start of 2025. Down here in Devon, believe it or not, March has been beautifully sunny and I’m typing this from the beach while watching my children build sandcastles.
In March.
I know.
To be fair, we do get this sort of heatwave for one to two weeks at the tail end of winter, every single year - everyone gets very excited and then it goes cold again for three more months.
To the review.
On the macro front, gold is at record highs. Goldman Sachs is now covering its back just in case the previously unthinkable happens:
The gold price can be explained simply: the world’s population expects the US Dollar to devalue over time, and is also terrified of uncertainty. In conversation with Rick Rule - someone anyone in mining should always have time for - the man makes clear that (a) owning physical gold is a must and (b) we are nowhere near the gold ceiling.
I am however paraphrasing (and this is not advice). You can always listen in for yourself.
Copper is also at record highs. China has turned on the money taps and instructed the department in charge of stockpiles to stockpile more. Meanwhile, the threat of potential US tariffs is massively incentivising copper imports into the US today.
Happily, it’s not like there was already a massive copper supply gap already.
Hang on.
Silver is starting to move, and I would not be surprised to see $50 silver before the end of the year. And then there’s the unloved elements right now - lithium , nickel et al - where bargains are to be had.
On America, Trump continues to make advances on Greenland - and has also executed a Presidential Order to increase mining in the US. In Europe, the first round of ‘strategic’ projects have been announced - and more are in the pipeline.
It really does feel as though the critical minerals trade war is going from a specialist report to front page news.
This should feel like vindication, and it does, but concomitantly the only reason why metals are rising so sharply is geopolitical uncertainty. Which is great as long as the new Cold War doesn’t go any further than the last one.
On the macro front, I remain of the view that the S&P 500 is due a larger correction this year than what we have seen so far. Trump is upending the world order with tariffs and bravado - and making his oversalted omelette will require breaking more than a few eggs.
The canary in the coal mine? You’d think it’d be AI, but no.
Walmart - that bastion of American value - is dropping by tens of billions in market value with CEO Doug McMillon telling investors that last month he’d noticed ‘stressed behavior from consumers who were more budget-constrained.’
Meanwhile, the CEO OF Dollar General thinks that consumers 'only have enough money for basic essentials.'
This does not bode well for the real US economy - and US consumers clearly cannot swallow the costs of tariffs.
Meanwhile, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says almost everyone he talks to is 'more anxious about the economy than any time in recent memory.'
I’m sure it’s nothing.
But assuming Trump doesn’t torpedo the global markets:
The Golden Trio
Let’s consider what’s happened this month to my top three ‘small’ cap mining shares - you know, the ones where if it goes wrong my portfolio will start crying literal tears.
Happily, it’s all going pretty well.
Sovereign Metals was at an all-time high of 48.5p in London a few days ago when the news reported it was seeking to raise A$40 million through Petra Capital at an 8.1% discount to the 15-day volume weighted average price.
My first reaction was thus:
‘My profits! My beautiful, lovely profits!’
My second reaction was that we are all the way back down…to the same price as the start of February.
Ah, that’s alright then.
But why raise this cash? The first thing you need to know is that while every company pretends their equity raise was wildly oversubscribed - this one actually was. No, seriously.
In fact, the brokers perhaps went overboard - individuals whose names were used to garner interest were themselves scaled back due to the popularity.
Part of this is because SVML is sexy as fuck. But part of it is because Petra Capital is a serious outfit capable of raising the cash required to build the Kasiya mine if Rio Tinto decides to play games.
And make no mistake.
We’re well into games here.
Rio Tinto, understandably, wants to pay as little as possible for the asset. Sovereign, understandably, wants RIO to pay as much as possible for the asset.
This is not personal - both companies owe that legal duty of care to their shareholders. What this means is that both have to dance the dance of Der Ententanz until they agree to the price which both know is what it was always going to be in the first place.
The clock starts ticking when the DFS is published later this year, and Sovereign needs to be cash rich - able to demonstrate they can get the mine built themselves.
New highs will come soon - but enjoy the ‘sale’ while you can. It doesn’t help that the entire ASX is being smashed by tariff talk.
We’re still up 50% over the past year and circa 5% year-to-date.
Greatland Gold tagged 13p on Friday and continues to march higher. My view remains that the stock will hit 20p when it lists on the ASX in June and the superannuation funds get their grubby hands on some shares…
But that’s not all. I got some info this month from a reliable source that the US version of GDXJ can apply a discretionary discount on AIM-listed stocks which explains why the fund is underweight GGP.
However, this discretionary discount is not able to be applied to stocks on the ASX.
Which is going to be fun when GGP lists down under - though as the discount is discretionary, they can redress the balance when they choose. I can’t say this is 100% the case, but I trust the source and it’s as good an explanation as any.
I suspect GDXJ will see inflows sooner or later regardless. The gold price moves first. Then the majors. Then the juniors.
I think it’s well worth listening to my recent interview with GGP CEO Shaun Day - though I suppose that after this year’s rise, GGP is officially now a mid-cap rather than a small cap.
And there’s no wonder really. The upgrade to Total Group Mineral Resources of 10.2 million ounces gold and 387,000 tonnes copper in March is superlative - but more importantly means that Telfer production will continue more than long enough to get Havieron into production.
And remember, that upgrade doesn’t take into account the previous few months of drilling. There’s a lot more gold in them hills.
I will note, however, that Shaun wants to consolidate shares to get the share price in the same region as ASX peers. This is absolutely the right move, but I suspect the stock might drop for a very short while.
It shouldn’t for any technical reason, but they always seem to. Don’t ask me to explain why, I have no idea.
In the end analysis though, the above slide says it all for the continual re-rate.
Finally, Amaroq. CEO Eldur Olafsson has warm words of praise for the team, though investors may have noted this comment:
‘Looking forward into 2025, although first gold pour marked a significant moment, the real work we have been undertaking throughout the first quarter of this year, has been in the commissioning of the processing facilities, mining operations and logistics, in order to establish a stabilised rate and bring the facilities up to the name plate capacity of 300 t/d by the end of 2025. In line with this and following some standard commissioning issues over the winter months, which resulted in delays to the original ramp up schedule, we are working hard on completing the commissioning and remaining construction in the spring and summer months, taking advantage of the more clement weather conditions.’
The company expects to deliver first gold production numbers in May - exploration plans for 2025 will be sooner - but the key point to remember is that 2025 is optimisation year for AMRQ.
Production numbers are not going to blow investors out of the water - but once the ramp up and commissioning is finished by year-end, it should be generating very, very healthy free cash flow.
But the long-awaited MRE upgrade is doing much of the heavy lifting:
Contained gold at Nalunaq increased by more than 51% to 484koz.
And the share price slightly declined, perhaps due to Icelandic capital markets contagion from Alvotech.
This estimate includes 157.6koz Indicated plus 326.3koz Inferred (the nuggety nature means majority-inferred is the way it has to be) but regardless, it did include a maiden Indicated Mineral Resource category, supporting potential future conversion to Mineral Reserves…
with a total maiden Indicated Mineral Resource of 151kt @ 32.4g/t Au for 157.6koz Au, with an additional 348kt @ 29.2g/t Au for 326.3koz Au in the Inferred category.
Most importantly, this update increases mine life from circa six years to ten years. And they’re nowhere near an end to the updates, with drilling ongoing pretty much into perpetuity.
Does the share price action annoy me? Yes and no. I’ve been in Amaroq since the 30s and we have only retraced to where we were in Q4 - and it’s only down circa 10% year-to-date still.
The potential - not just at a producing gold mine with gold racing to new record highs, but to control exploration across the entire new frontier island of Greenland - is simply explosive.
And this is some of the highest grade gold mineralisation in the world.
But it requires a little patience. Optimisation takes time. If we’re fully ramped up by year-end, then profits will do the re-rating. The team will get it done.
At present then, SVML and AMRQ have cancelled each other’s gains/losses out and GGP has more than bagged.
I remain of the view that ‘A portfolio equally split between Sovereign Metals, Amaroq Minerals and Greatland Gold will deliver a positive return in 2025.’
I’m sticking with this conviction. Of course, we need to deal with Trump - in the end, his desire for critical minerals from Canada, Greenland and Ukraine will mean good news for AMRQ et al - but until the rhetoric fizzles, it may wear on sentiment.
JD Vance’s visit, despite acknowledging Greenland’s right to self-determination, doesn’t help. But Trump and Vance have both moved on from conquering to some kind of Mafia-style ‘protection.’
Consider Trump’s carefully designed video. This follows the classic Trumpian playbook: threaten massively, then offer some carrots.
But even if the US does get ‘aggressive’ with Greenland, if they want to develop the island, they need Amaroq’s singular expertise.
Moving on.
The explorers
Arc Minerals has been quiet over Q1. This can’t really be helped - I’ve been in Zambia during the rainy season, and when it’s raining, there are times when you cannot see your hands in front of your own face.
However, we are coming back into a period of sustained and attractive news flow.
To start with, we have assays from the new priority target to come back. Why we don’t have them yet - feel free to speculate - but what is inarguable is that Anglo are required to spend circa $21 million on exploration in less than two years.
This is going to require more than one rig. Investors will very shortly be informed on 2025 plans.
There is so, so much to be excited about here.
Just hang tight.
I suspect there will be significantly more to talk about this time next month.
On Rome, we await the results from promising holes with over one hundred metres of mineralisation.
However, this is not going to move until the M23 situation above ground is resolved - though the tin has been there for hundreds of thousands of years. It’s not going anywhere.
In the latest developments, Qatar has hosted talks between Rwanda and the DRC, with M23 leaders in the same country but not the same room. Rwanda is under severe pressure to curtail their activities - including financial sanctions.
On Thursday, the UK demanded the unconditional ceasefire and withdrawal of M23 and Rwandan Defence Forces from the DRC at a UN Security Council meeting on Democratic Republic of the Congo.
The geology of the Congo is a seductive mistress (think Cleopatra), and this kind of risk is simply the price to pay when you invest. But in another major tin country (Myanmar), there has just been a large earthquake that will again dramatically hit global tin supply, further pushing up prices.
And because of this, my suspicion is that the world’s trading houses will not tolerate Bisie being offline for any great deal of time. Rwanda’s entire GDP is $14.1 billion. The economic pressure about to be brought to bear will be extreme, even if the global wheels of power turn slowly.
The good news is that Rome’s contractors are only paid when the drill bit turns, and it remains well capitalised.
Oh and one more thing. Rio Tinto is holding talks with the DRC about developing the world’s biggest lithium deposit - Manono - in partnership with KoBold once the dispute between AVZ, Zijin & the state gets resolved.
Clearly, the majors are not worried. Is Manono far away? Yes.
But nowhere near as far as Kinshasha.
Who found that deposit while originally searching for tin? Klaus Eckhof - the Chair at Rome, who was also pivotal when Bisie was discovered.
Stay tuned.
The dealmakers
Our first dealmaker has got through the gate. Yes, the union between Alien Metals & suitor might be mildly incestuous, and yes it went right down to the wire, but a deal’s a deal.
Listen in:
Errawarra was the top ASX riser on the day it acquired the asset - and one of the only pure-play silver projects in Australia.
Alien Metals has secured A$880k (A$500k cash + A$378k equity from sell-down) without any dilution.
This gives it the cash to allow Sternship Advisers (the former UBS Perth team) the runway to work out the best deal for Hancock, which is where the Alien re-rate lies.
For context, CZR Resources’ Robe Mesa iron ore project is currently subject to a bidding war - with Rio Tinto valuing the asset at A$75 million…
Demand for iron ore is there and Alien now has a runway to execute.
And remember, it’s Sternship executing, not the board. Will we get back to 1p?
That’s the dream.
For its part, Errawarra has acquired 70% of the Elizabeth Hill Silver Project, alongside 70% of the silver rights over the Pinderi Hill tenements. Alien retains 30% of both, free-carried to decision to mine - with the JV managed and fully funded by Errawarra.
Let’s consider.
Value at ERW’s Closing price at A$0.054 is A$6.38 million.
A$880k (cash + ERW share sale proceeds)
A$1.6m (12.1% equity in ERW post-sell down)
A$3.9m (30% direct project interest based on pro-forma valuation)
Alien investors get exposure to significant upside without capital risk: at just A$0.10, Alien’s stake would be worth >A$10 million.
And Elizabeth Hill is one of Australia’s highest-grade historic silver mines.
Recent drilling highlights include:
19.7m @ 3,198 g/t Ag
52m @ 702 g/t Ag
42m @ 377 g/t Ag incl. 13m @ 1,102 g/t Ag
Elizabeth Hill originally closed when silver was at US$5/oz, and it’s now at US$34/oz - and rising. Some analysts (including me) think US$50/oz is around the corner given the historic gold-silver ratio disconnect.
Fieldwork will start within the next two weeks, with drilling to start within six to eight weeks.
Next, we come to Asiamet. If I could describe Asiamet in a song, it would be Anika Noni Rose’s 2009 anthem:
♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫
‘And I'm almost there, I'm almost there
People down here think I'm crazy
But I don't care
Trials and tribulations, I've had my share
There ain't nothin' gonna stop me now
'Cause I'm almost there’
♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫
I’m…
♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫
Alllllllllll
♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫
mooooossttttttttttttt
♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫♫
THERE.
The BKM optimised feasibility study is near completion - with copper at record highs and in the background of a US tariff-Chinese stockpiling storm. You could not ask for better conditions to approach major lenders for project level financing.
ARS notes that at the recommendation of the prospective lenders (more than one, important), it just has to conduct some analysis on power supply to ‘ensure alignment with lender financing criteria.’
This is the last significant piece of the DFS and will be delivered shortly.
There’s clearly strong lender engagement, with its now streamlined, lower capital cost project with significantly reduced construction complexity and associated risks - meaning active and ongoing engagement with multiple lending institutions.
The DFS publication date will be confirmed when the power supply analysis is out. CEO Darryn McClelland is ‘pleased with the high level of engagement from prospective lenders interested in financing the project…We look forward to publishing the optimised BFS shortly and promptly advancing into the formal financing phase.’
Sounds good to me. Get it done.
Then we have Blencowe. Other than the strong chance of European Strategic Project status - and the huge benefits thereof - March saw the stock gain an expression of interest from the African Finance Corporation to help fund Orom-Cross.
They’ve done their own due diligence and are interested in both debt and project level equity participation - and even have an interest in securing future funding rights for subsequent project expansions.
The AFC has $12.3 billion in assets and is a genuine Tier 1 lender for large-scale resource. Just ask Baomahun Gold. Or Thor. Or Shalina.
Of course, BRES still has the US Development Finance Corporation on board. And given Trump’s latest President Executive order, they better get cracking.
BRES also signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Apollo Energy Systems and had the National Environmental Management Authority of Uganda approve its revised - including tripled production rates - Environmental, Social, Impact Assessment this month.
Phase 1 development needs to happen in 2026 - so funding needs to happen in 2025.
Then Bezant.
This one’s simple - we need the mining license for Hope & Gorob; with others in Namibia recently given the go-ahead, one guesses Bezant is not far behind.
Then the numbers speak for themselves - project level financing *should* be relatively easy to sort.
BZT’s shares in Blackstone have absolutely ripped - a little like Alien’s shares in Errawarra. Perhaps there’s a lesson there for undervalued assets on AIM seeking a new life:
Blackstone has found visible gold at Mankayan - and Bezant has 148,985,657 Blackstone shares and 2,543,750 options to acquire Blackstone shares at AUD0.06 expiring on 5 February 2029.
In shares alone, that’s £6 million. The options are further cash, all in the money. And Bezant’s market cap is around £4 million - it’s also recently sold a non-core asset for $220,000 - and only raised cash in January.
This is a no-brainer.
Next up? Energy Pathways.
The company has told you this:
It really doesn’t get much clearer than multiples. Yes, it’s non binding, and yes, there is still risk. But one hopes, fervently, that the seller who now appears to be done lives to regret it - much like the strategy chap at Andrada who lost tens of thousands in profit in a number of days (unless he sold to ACAM, in which case I apologise).
Incidentally, the tin price is rocketing for reasons mentioned above. Andrada - it’s good to see you making hay while the sun shines.
Anyway, the recent Spring Statement from our highly qualified Chancellor included scrapping the Climate Change Levy on electricity used for electrolytic Hydrogen production - this will hugely benefit EPP - not just in the future, but in project financing talks.
We also had news on the company’s novel H-CAES tech, which is a potential game-changer, because it applies not just to MESH but potentially to projects the world over. Meanwhile, the Marram Gas Storage license is submitted and awaiting regulatory approval, while the Knox and Lowry licenses are being assessed.
EPP believes its tech can ‘make a major contribution to supporting the UK's renewable energy integration and providing security of power supply for the UK's businesses and households. The MESH LDES system will potentially be the largest of its kind in Europe.’
We’re looking at Tier 1 partnerships for oil & gas, energy storage, the electrolysers, and debt financing with a FTSE 100 company.
Which, if it happens, is gonna be Centrica. Right?
Guardian & Power
That’s not too shabby a quarter.
GMET has passed the £50 million market capitalisation when it becomes attractive to funds. I very recently covered the stock in depth - so read all the key details here.
But if you’re all Charlesed out, then all you really need to know is that a combination of the recent Trump executive order and well-publicised documentation on incoming grant funding for the company’s Tungsten assets are getting investors excited.
The stock is incredibly tightly held.
And I - alongside others - was called up by brokers last week asking whether we would consider selling. It looks like one guy said yes (no shame in taking profits, however Leonidas would not have you) - but this kind of price action may once again be institutional.
ACAM, Purebond & Goehring & Rozencwajg (couldn’t hide from me) are all already in. Who next?
But while Guardian steams ahead, spare a moment to consider parent Power Metal Resources. Like Bezant, and Tekcapital, and many others (perhaps worth an article on this phenomenon) Power Metal’s assets are well, well in excess of its market capitalisation when considering a sum-of-parts valuation.
Of course, this has been the case for some time.
But consider.
The uranium JV with ACAM is worth North of £16 million in an upside scenario (plus blue sky exploration potential).
The remaining GMET shareholding is currently ‘worth’ circa £12 million, though obviously this would need a willing buyer.
It’s got roughly £7 million in the bank from selling roughly half its GMET stake for a return of just under 1,000%.
And it’s maneuvering in Saudi Arabia like a cashed-up Aladdin. This stock will have its moment in the sun.
Alongside various other assets, it also has de facto control of Red Rock Resources - but I’d liken this to when Harry Potter inherited Kreacher.
Without the lovable characteristics.
I am certain there will be a re-rate at Power. I did say that GMET would have the better Q1 but that POW will deliver a strong Q2 due to the uranium anticipation (and now deployment of cash).
Let’s see.
Jubilee & African Pioneer
Jubilee is still roughly flat year-to-date. The perception, perhaps, is that the stock is being sold by companies paid in stock for assets.
But at this price point, and its positioning in Zambian copper, and the record copper price….
It’s perhaps too cheap to ignore.
What I do know is that the last thing we heard was that Roan had restarted processing high grade copper - this was in February and then we had results at the tail end of March.
As ever with Jubilee, results had significant promise but with a few stressors. Most importantly, revenue rocketed by 51% year-over-year to $141.5 million mostly due to record chrome production - driven by the new processing modules at Thutse- and even accounting for chrome crashing by >40% in a quarter (and then recovering, meaning the next figures out should be stronger).
In Zambia, JLP has secured additional power supply, and transitioned to the higher grade copper feed, with grades going from <0.8% Cu to >1.6% Cu, which should improve profitability. And the company has also stockpiled 1.21Mt of copper ore containing 8,466 tons of copper.
In PGMs, cost per ounce dropped by more than 20%, driving gross profit up by more than 45%, despite lower production. Overall , the company is strongly positioned to benefit as metals pricing improves…
But on the other hand, copper profitability sank by 88% to $300,000, with margins falling from 31.7% to 3.9% - basically adding nothing to the business during the period.
However, this underperformance is all based on one-off costs. Power disruptions at Roan were mostly down to lack of hydroelectric power in Zambia - and the rains this year were decent. Contractual price adjustments leading to higher production costs (+30.6%) didn’t help either, but again, this was a one-off expense.
Cash reserves dropped from $19.3 million to $8.3 million - while EBITDA dopped by 6.8% - and the company also invested heavily in expansion to the tune of $17.8 million - a delicate balance as JLP moved too slowly in chrome back in the day and lost significant potential revenue as a result. But it’s also true that investors want a return now.
Perhaps the larger issue is metals pricing. Chrome prices fell to just $200/t at period end. And the company should be off setting this with copper profits with copper at record highs - but it’s just not there yet.
JLP remains a coiled spring - but the copper needs to pay off soon. That includes whatever the plan is for the waste project given the deal with IRH has been put on the backburner until at least May. I suspect this may be what cause the re-rate this year.
But Roan performing and Munkoyo expanding are critical.
On African Pioneer, two things.
The first is that - if you listen to this conversation with Rick Rule yesterday - these licenses are strongly located and the likes of Friedland or others in the same bandwidth (as I have hoped) might be happy to JV them soon.
This remains a top risk pick given the market cap - though in recent days, the stock is rising.
Like Bezant, this might also be due to hopes for a mining license issuance in Namibia - this time for Ongombo.
With Xtract also looking very attractive, things might be looking up for the Bird.
Helium Hopefuls
Top helium pick Helix Exploration continues to go from strength to strength - but the share price refuses to sort itself out.
That’s fine.
More dip for me. Bring Doritos.
HEX has cash.
Linda #1 will be drilled soon - and will be the third production well at Rudyard - ahead of production over the summer.
For context, fabrication work has already started on a six-million cubic feet per day helium membrane package (which rejects nitrogen and increases helium grade before feeding gas into the PSA plant) - and this new well is only a mile from discovery well Darwin #1.
Three wells.
$4 million in pre-tax revenue per year from each well.
$12 million in revenue.
A £21 million market cap.
And blue sky potential upon re-entry at Ingomar. Yes, the Charles formation is just not up to scratch, but the Flathead formation remains the key target not only for helium but also hydrogen - if commercial hydrogen is found, this will rocket.
The only fly in the ointment is that summer in the US officially ends on 22 September - let’s hope it’s June but be aware that ‘summer’ could be later than we think in a market with a five minute attention span.
Personally, I blame TikTok.
And market makers.
Worth keeping an eye on Mendell in the future for a similar revenue model.
The other two helium hopefuls I keep an eye on are Pulsar and Predator, both picked for their high risk, high reward status.
Pulsar just acquired some capital, but crunch time is coming. Topaz drilling has thus far been positive - but the two Jetstream wells were being flow tested ‘on or around March 29, 2025, with each well to be flowed for a period of approximately two weeks. At the same time, uncontaminated gas samples will also be collected from each well and sent for laboratory analysis.’
It’s a binary risk event. I think the upside is worth the risk, but the next RNS is key - and we should know by the time of the next review.
Place your bets.
Then Predator. The stock has tanked - but shot up by 50% late on Friday on the lows. There are two things for sure here - first, this could shoot up rapidly on a whiff, despite the perceived news.
Second, there are shenanigans afoot. Deleted X accounts, missing ‘deadlines,’ a spiking share price late on a Friday…
This is a relatively small position in the portfolio as it was (for me) a binary risk play on the Titanosaurus. But I haven’t sold and don’t intend to.
Games can be deceiving.
The Moonshot!
Emmerson is now up circa 150% year-to-date.
YAY.
The company has now drawn down the first tranche of the up to $11 million in litigation finance capital. I strongly believe they are going to win.
I love winning.
So do lawyers.
So do share prices.
But if you do feel the need to top slice, then it’s okay to count a win as a win. For what it’s worth, GreenX Metals is also up 23% year-to-date. Zenith is up 23%.
Maybe it’s just better to follow the ambulance chasers than invest in rocks.
Last month’s special picks
I briefly mentioned Central Asia Metals & Afentra as decent picks for March.
A divided stock as a monthly pick?
Yes. CAML was, and remains very undervalued compared to production rates and the copper price - and after solid results, the stock rose a comfortable 10% in March. I’m not expecting to cover it in depth soon (this would take forever, unless the company requests it), but I’m happy to retain the shares I bought for the dividend.
Meanwhile, Afentra went down, then back up and is effectively flat for the month. This company is supremely undervalued and in my view an easy winner, if you can stomach the irrational market for another month or two.
For April (and perhaps further), I would like to highlight UOG as a potential multi-bagger. Beer money only.
But if Brian gets a JV, this thing rockets.
Of course, ‘if’ is the operative word.
Same time next month?