Helix Exploration.

Ignore the share price. The game just changed.

Good Morning Team.

When I last wrote about Helix in June, I was talking about offtakes, revenue and a potential buyout.

All of these things remain on the table. But our most recent RNS has changed things up, dramatically to the upside.

For reference, the share price is around the same as the last time we considered the stock. It should be higher.

But it is still up 47% year-to-date.

As this company is now going to attract new investors unfamiliar with the investment case, this piece is going to cover some older elements.

You can send it to friends as a primer for all things Helix.

Here goes:

In the quiet expanse of Montana, something remarkable is happening. Helix Exploration has gone from a speculative IPO to the cusp of becoming Montana’s first helium producer in just 18 months.

But that timeline undersells what’s actually unfolding. What started as a straightforward helium development story has evolved into something far more significant:

A geological discovery that could reshape North America’s helium supply chain and potentially deliver one of the world’s cleanest hydrogen sources.

The stock has climbed sharply since its 10p IPO, and there was a strong opportunity to double down at 12p as recently as April.

But the interesting bit isn’t the price action — it’s what’s driving it. Every well drilled has confirmed the thesis. Every scientific result has exceeded expectations.

And the October revelation about mantle helium and natural hydrogen generation suggests the Rudyard Project isn’t just commercially viable.

It’s scientifically exceptional.

And the US government will take interest.

The Rudyard Project: Better Than Expected

The Rudyard Field sits within Montana’s Helium Fairway, a geological trend that’s been known for decades but largely ignored during the era of cheap helium from federal reserves.

Helix’s management saw what others overlooked - a large anticlinal structure with proven helium shows from historical drilling, sitting in an area where infrastructure costs are manageable and land acquisition straightforward.

Darwin #1, completed in November 2024, established the baseline. It flowed 2,750 Mcf/d of raw gas on a 40/64” choke, with an absolute open flow exceeding 4,500 Mcf/d.

The helium grade came in at 1.1% in a predominantly nitrogen gas mix — exactly what you want for simple, cost-effective processing. No CO2 issues. No hydrogen sulphide. Just helium and nitrogen, which is about as straightforward as gas separation gets.

Linda #1 followed with similar success, testing 1.2% helium at 3,800 Mcf/d. The acquired Weil #1 well showed 0.9-1.3% helium at 2,500 Mcf/d.

Then came Inez #1 in September, drilled two miles south of Linda to test the southern dome of the structure. After acidisation to address skin damage from drilling fluids, it delivered 1.2% helium with an absolute open flow of 1,157 Mcf/d from just a 55-foot perforation interval.

Management noted that the small interval compared to previous wells— Linda had 218 feet, Darwin had 236 feet — explains the lower flow rate, and they plan to perforate additional zones in the upper Souris River formation.

The pattern is clear: this isn’t a one-well wonder or a lucky strike. The Rudyard structure is consistent, predictable and large.

CEO Bo Sears now talks openly about supporting up to twenty wells across the field, far higher than the sector norm of one well fields.

Mantle Helium and Natural Hydrogen

Here’s where it gets interesting.

Most helium deposits form from radioactive decay of uranium and thorium in crustal rocks over geological time — this produces helium-4. But Rudyard’s helium has something else mixed in: helium-3, the rare isotope that originates from the Earth’s mantle.

Analysis by Durham University recorded a ³He/⁴He ratio of 0.74 Rₐ—over 3,600% above average continental crust values.

This represents some of the highest ratios recorded in continental North America outside of Yellowstone, with helium-3 concentrations averaging greater than 10ppb.

Isotopic modeling suggests roughly 9% of Rudyard’s helium originates from the mantle, indicating deep crustal fractures or faults are channeling primordial gases upward from the Earth’s interior.

This is commercially significant. Mantle-sourced helium systems tend to be long-lived because they’re actively replenished from below rather than simply trapped in finite reservoirs.

So this presence of mantle helium at Rudyard suggests the field could produce for decades, far exceeding typical depletion curves for crustal helium traps.

But the mantle connection revealed something else.

Dr Michael Hofmann of AIM GeoAnalytics confirmed that rock cuttings from Rudyard wells contain serpentine, olivine and magnetite — the exact minerals that generate natural hydrogen through water-rock reactions deep within the Earth.

These minerals occur in mafic and ultramafic rocks, which release hydrogen when they react with water under heat and pressure.

This geochemical analysis establishes Rudyard as one of the few verified hydrogen-prone ultramafic systems in North America.

For context, nearly all hydrogen used today comes from steam methane reforming of natural gas, a process that releases large volumes of CO2 and produces ‘grey hydrogen.’

Geological hydrogen, by contrast, is created naturally underground, requiring no fossil fuel feedstock and emitting zero carbon when produced. If confirmed at commercial scale, Rudyard’s hydrogen could represent one of the cleanest and most cost-effective hydrogen resources on Earth, potentially meeting the US Department of Energy’s ‘Hydrogen Shot’ goal of producing clean hydrogen at $1 per kilogram.

The US offers a Clean Hydrogen Production Tax Credit through Section 45V of the Inflation Reduction Act, providing up to $3 per kilogram of qualified clean hydrogen produced.

If Rudyard’s hydrogen qualifies (and given the zero-carbon profile, it should) the economics become extraordinary.

Management has confirmed they’re testing deeper zones for hydrogen potential in Linda #1, and that some offtake discussions include parties interested in the geological hydrogen.

The Path to Production

Helix has secured a Xebec PSA processing plant with 50,000 Mcf/year capacity for just $500,000 — a bargain that reflects the company’s opportunistic approach to capital deployment.

A membrane unit from Germany complements the PSA, providing a modular, scalable system that can expand as additional wells come online. The beauty of the modular design is that additional membranes can be installed to increase helium output while maintaining the same feed volume to the PSA module.

Site preparation is complete. The custom-built housing facility is finished. Wikota Design & Construction in Houston has assembled the PSA plant, and a Helix representative has inspected and approved it.

Mobilisation to site commenced in mid-October.

The final key component, the helium compressor unit, is scheduled for delivery in November 2025, with a two week installation and commissioning process to follow.

First helium production is now anticipated shortly, in either November or December. That is later than the initial summer 2025 target, but the delay appears to be standard procurement and logistics rather than technical issues.

I did foresee this delay in my June article:

‘That said, the slightly softer tone in language suggests it’s possible that first ‘real’ production is now more likely to be in Q4 than Q3.

That’s perfectly fine — it just means a steady rise, rather than a sharp one.

Of course, it may well end up happening by mid-September (by the end of US summer, as promised). But it’s infinitely preferable to take the time you need to get it done properly, the first time.

Measure twice, cut once.’

Management has repeatedly emphasised getting it right rather than rushing, which is the correct approach.

The company has also completed all necessary insurance and is in advanced discussions with multiple industrial gas companies regarding offtake arrangements.

The gas gathering system procurement is underway, with 4-inch piping arriving from Wyoming. Nu Wave Services of Havre is supporting the assembly of key components including the gathering system, membranes, and electrical and gas supply. Engineers from Wikota will oversee final integration.

It’s worth noting the operational efficiency here.

From first exploration well to four production wells, processing plant construction, and near-term production in eighteen months is exceptional execution for a junior explorer.

Most companies in this space would still be arguing about land access or waiting for permits.

Back of the Bottle Numbers

Let’s again work through the financial model (I acknowledge at the outset that these are back-of-the-bottle calculations with significant uncertainty).

But the framework is sound.

Helix has stated that at conservative sustained flow rates of 2,000 Mcf/day raw gas per well, 1.1% helium grade, and a helium sales price of $500/Mcf, production from three wells would generate approximately $12 million per year in pre-tax revenue.

The math checks out: three wells at 2,000 Mcf/day each gives 6,000 Mcf/day total, which at 1.1% helium grade yields 66 Mcf/day of helium, or roughly 24,000 Mcf/year. At $500/Mcf, that’s $12 million annually.

Darwin #1 alone, at higher flow rates, is expected to generate $4 million in pre-tax annual cash flow. Extending that across five wells by year-end 2025 gives $20 million in annual revenue. Apply a conservative 4x early-stage, risk-adjusted multiple to account for execution risk and market illiquidity, and you arrive at an $80 million market cap (approximately £64 million).

This was the numbers I used months ago, when the stock was trading closer to 10p. With HEX now sporting a £48 million market capitalisation, this means a 33% increase in share price between now and the end of 2025 should be in order as long as production starts this quarter.

That’s my model theory anyway :)

But the story doesn’t end in 2025. If Helix drills one well per quarter going forward, they’d have nine wells by end of 2026, fourteen by end of 2027, and nineteen to twenty by end of 2028. At $4 million revenue per well, that’s $80 million in annual revenue by 2028.

Apply a more mature 6x multiple once the field is proven and production is stable, and the implied market cap reaches $480 million.

Of course, this assumes steady execution, no dry holes, consistent helium pricing and that the company remains independent — all of which are questionable assumptions. Things can and do go wrong.

But the maths is based on actual flow test data, conservative flow rates below absolute open flow, and helium pricing that’s been relatively stable in recent years.

The Aeon calculation from January 2025 estimated 355 million cubic feet of helium reserves in the Northern Dome alone, with net revenue of $115.2 million over a 12.5-year life of field.

CEO Bo Sears has since suggested the upside potential could reach 4 billion cubic feet across the entire Rudyard structure — more than ten times the Aeon estimate.

If 355 million cubic feet generates $115.2 million in revenue, then 4 billion cubic feet would generate approximately $1.3 billion over the field’s life.

Even with conservative assumptions, twenty wells producing $4 million annually for 12.5 years equals $1 billion in revenue.

The missing $300 million between that figure and the $1.3 billion projection reflects conservative flow rate assumptions and excludes hydrogen upside entirely.

There are 186,317,400 shares in issue. The market cap sits around £48 million.

The valuation disconnect is obvious.

Either the market doesn’t believe the resource is there, or doesn’t trust management to execute, or simply isn’t valuing it properly.

Given the track record to date, the latter seems most likely.

Strategic Context

A year ago, oil, gas and mining were ESG pariahs — too dirty for fund managers specialising in moral ambiguity.

Now the sector sits at the heart of Sino-US strategic tension.

Investing in domestic extraction and processing has become practically an act of national service, and institutional capital is waking up to it.

Helium was already the ‘disappearing element’ before geopolitics entered the equation. It’s the only element that escapes Earth’s atmosphere when released, making it genuinely non-renewable on human timescales.

Global supply has always been dominated by a small number of large-scale projects — Algeria, Qatar, Russia, and the US federal reserve stockpile — with a handful of major players like Linde, Air Products and ExxonMobil controlling distribution.

That cartel-like structure kept prices stable for years, but recent disruptions have exposed the fragility. The US federal reserve ended its helium sales program. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted European supply chains. Algeria and Qatar have proven unreliable partners.

The result has been price volatility and growing recognition that domestic supply security matters for critical industries including semiconductors, healthcare, aerospace and quantum computing.

Helix, as a domestic US operator, is insulated from geopolitical and trade risks that threaten international peers. US-based customers will increasingly put a premium on US-based supply, particularly as tariff threats remain on the table and geopolitical tensions escalate.

The company is already in commercial discussions with domestic end users and mid-tier distributors, and there’s now every chance that the next RNS will be an offtake agreement, potentially with a prepayment component.

The US government’s $1 trillion stockpiling and direct equity investments into various US-based critical minerals companies (as I have covered here many times over) demonstrates how serious Washington has become about critical mineral supply chains.

Helium and hydrogen both qualify as strategic resources under any reasonable definition, and policy support is likely to strengthen rather than weaken in coming years.

Add in JP Morgan talking up resources and starting up a $1.5 trillion ‘Security and Resiliency Initiative to Boost Critical Industries’ - including direct equity investments of up to $10 billion - and we’re only really just getting started.

I would not be surprised to see government interest in the very near future.

Pulsar Comparison: Two Very Different Helium Stories

As long-time readers here will know, I also hold Pulsar Helium stock as a speculative position, with Helix being the larger of the two.

I dislike the tribalism that some display when it comes to stocks in the same sector. Yes, it’s true that traders will bounce between the two stocks - but the bottom line is that share price success will rely on achieving corporate milestones.

And there’s room for more than one success story on this space.

That being said, a brief comparison is possibly helpful.

Pulsar Helium’s also announced a a helium-3 discovery this month, at their Topaz Project in Minnesota.

Both companies have discovered helium-3 signatures in the continental United States.

Both are developing domestic helium resources with strategic significance.

But the similarities end there, and the differences reveal why these are fundamentally different investment propositions.

Pulsar’s Jetstream #1 well returned helium-3 concentrations ranging from 1.3 to 14.5 parts per billion, with a peak of 14.5ppb, and a ³He/⁴He ratio of 0.09 Rₐ.

The helium-4 grade is exceptional at 7-8%, higher than Helix’s 1.1-1.2% at Rudyard. Pulsar’s announcement emphasised the peak 14.5ppb figure as among the highest naturally occurring helium-3 levels publicly reported in any terrestrial reservoir worldwide, comparable to concentrations found in lunar regolith (the moon).

On paper, Pulsar’s peak helium-3 figure is impressive, and the helium-4 grade is superior. The consistent ³He/⁴He isotopic signature of 0.09 Rₐ across all samples suggests a homogeneous reservoir source.

But the story is more nuanced than headline figures suggest.

The August 2025 announcement provides the missing piece: flow rates. Jetstream #1 flowed approximately 501 thousand cubic feet per day naturally on a 38/64” choke at 30 psi wellhead pressure —more than triple the peak rate from the shallower 2024 wellbore.

Under wellhead compression to reduce flowing pressure and gauge maximum deliverability, the well surged to approximately 1.3 million cubic feet per day. The well produced 100% dry gas with no formation water, indicating a clean reservoir system ideal for processing.

Helix’s Rudyard Project tells a different story. The ³He/⁴He ratio of 0.74 Rₐ is eight times higher than Pulsar’s 0.09 Rₐ, indicating a much stronger mantle contribution — approximately 9% of Rudyard’s helium comes from the mantle compared to roughly 1% for Topaz based on standard mixing models.

The helium-3 concentrations at Rudyard average greater than 10ppb, which is remarkably consistent and actually exceeds Pulsar’s range of 1.3-14.5ppb on an average basis.

Pulsar’s peak of 14.5ppb is higher than Helix’s stated average, but averages matter more than peaks for commercial production —Helix appears to have more consistent, possibly higher overall helium-3 content across the reservoir.

The critical difference is volume.

Darwin #1 at Rudyard flows 2,750 Mcf/d of raw gas at 1.1% helium grade, yielding approximately 30 Mcf of helium-4 per day. At absolute open flow, that’s 49.5 Mcf daily. Linda #1 flows 3,800 Mcf/d. Even the lower-performing Inez #1, tested over just a 55-foot interval, achieves 1,157 Mcf/d absolute open flow.

These are commercial flow rates that support sustained production and justify processing infrastructure investment.

And we can make direct comparisons. Jetstream #1’s natural flow of 501 Mcf/d at 7-8% helium grade yields approximately 35-40 Mcf of helium-4 per day.

Under compression at peak flow of 1,300 Mcf/d, that’s roughly 91-104 Mcf of helium-4 daily, higher than Helix’s Darwin #1 at 30 Mcf/d naturally or 49.5 Mcf/d at absolute open flow.

Pulsar’s compressed flow rate of 1.3 MMcf/d is impressive, particularly for a single well in what appears to be a regional-scale helium system.

However, there are important caveats. The 1.3 MMcf/d rate required wellhead compression to artificially ameliorate flowing pressure and extract maximum deliverability. This isn’t a sustained production rate — it’s a test of reservoir potential under optimised conditions.

The natural flow rate of 501 Mcf/d at 30psi wellhead pressure is the more relevant baseline for commercial production, though wellhead compression can certainly be employed in field development to enhance recoveries.

Jetstream #2 tells a more concerning story. Initial flow of 40-50 Mcf/d with high shut-in pressure of 151 psi suggests strong reservoir potential, but sustained flow was restricted by persistent wellbore blockages.

The well is under review to determine the cause of these restrictions, indicating potential completion or formation damage issues that could affect development economics if widespread across the field.

There’s also the helium-3 question. Pulsar correctly notes that helium-3 commands extraordinary prices — approximately $2,500 per liter or $18.7 million per kilogram, roughly 100,000 times the price of common helium-4.

At 14.5ppb peak concentration, a well flowing significant volumes could theoretically generate substantial helium-3 revenue. But Pulsar acknowledges that ‘there is no commercial technology in operation that separates helium-3 from helium-4 in a gas stream at scale.’

They’re in dialogue with potential collaborators to evaluate separation methods (as I imagine, is Helix), but this is research-stage technology, not something that can be deployed in the near term.

Helix faces the same challenge with their 10+ppb helium-3 concentrations, but they’re not banking on it commercially. The Rudyard business case works entirely on helium-4 economics at $500/Mcf with hydrogen as potential upside.

If helium-3 separation technology emerges and proves economically viable, that’s additional optionality rather than core thesis.

The hydrogen dimension adds another layer of differentiation. Helix has confirmed the presence of serpentine, olivine and magnetite in Rudyard rock cuttings, the exact minerals that generate natural hydrogen through water-rock reactions. The mantle helium signature indicates deep crustal fractures facilitating these reactions at depth.

Pulsar’s announcement makes no mention of hydrogen potential, suggesting either they haven’t investigated it or the geological conditions at Topaz don’t support hydrogen generation.

Natural hydrogen production, if confirmed at commercial scale at Rudyard, could access the US Clean Hydrogen Production Tax Credit of up to $3 per kilogram under Section 45V.

Given zero-carbon production from geological processes, Rudyard’s hydrogen would qualify for the maximum credit tier. That substantially changes project economics beyond helium-4 alone.

From a development timeline perspective, Helix is miles ahead. Four producing wells drilled in eighteen months, processing plant assembled and mobilised to site - first production expected this quarter. And advanced offtake discussions underway.

By contrast, Pulsar has signed a master services agreement with Timberline Drilling to drill up to ten wells starting late September 2025. They’ve partnered with Chart Industries to design integrated helium production and CO2 capture equipment based on the Jetstream #1 dataset.

The company is moving methodically through appraisal and delineation, with the ten-well drilling program intended to map reservoir continuity and identify optimal production areas.

But Pulsar is earlier in the development cycle. While the drilling program represents aggressive exploration and delineation activity that will substantially de-risk the project over the next 6-12 months, there is no processing infrastructure contracted, the production facility is currently theory only, and no offtake discussions have been announced publicly.

That’s not a criticism. Early-stage exploration requires patient capital and methodical work. From an investment risk perspective, Topaz is an excellent discovery.

But the question is execution timeline and capital requirements.

Both investment cases are strong but serve different purposes.

Helix is the near-term catalyst play with a clear path to revenue generation and lower execution risk. Pulsar has a much longer development timeline and yes, potentially superior economics BUT comes with much higher risks.

Pulsar needs to prove up reservoir continuity and also evidence that Jetstream #2’s blockage issues aren’t systemic.

The market capitalisations reflect these differences. Pulsar trades at a significantly higher valuation than Helix, because we exist in a market that values potential over capital generation, until the capital generation actually starts.

Helix remains weeks away from first helium production with four proven wells, established reserves, confirmed mantle helium and hydrogen potential, and a clear path to twenty well development.

The market appears to be pricing Helix as if execution risk remains high or as if Montana helium is somehow less valuable than Minnesota helium, neither of which seems rational.

If this is all starting to get a bit much…then here’s your tl;dr

The comparison suggests these companies are complementary portfolio holdings rather than either-or choices. Helix offers the near-term production catalyst with lower execution risk while Pulsar offers exceptional grades but requires many more months of additional drilling, facility design and development before production begins.

For investors seeking near-term catalysts and clearer risk-adjusted returns in the next 6-12 months, Helix offers the more compelling proposition with its production start and potential offtake announcement.

For those willing to accept longer development timelines in exchange for exposure to risk positioning, Pulsar’s geological endowment is remarkable, particularly if the ten-well program confirms reservoir continuity across the land position.

Or in other words: one’s a producer, one’s an explorer.

But should Pulsar be valued at nearly double Helix? No - Helix’s market cap simply needs to catch up over the next couple of quarters.

The Endgame: How This Plays Out

Bo won’t be allowed to keep Rudyard very long. The major producers —Linde, Air Products, ExxonMobil — will not want a newcomer breaking the cartel or proving that mid-scale helium production is commercially viable outside their control.

They’ll make an offer once the field is sufficiently de-risked, likely around the ten-well mark when reserves are proven and production is established.

The Drachs family office joined the £4.5 million placing in June as cornerstone investors. They manage over $1 billion in assets and don’t invest for modest gains. They’re here for the endgame; either a takeover or a strategic partnership that crystallises value well above current levels.

The OTCQB listing is worth noting. American OTC volume starts slow — sometimes nonexistent — then suddenly rockets when US funds discover a stock. It’s cheap to maintain and invaluable when stateside interest kicks in. Most companies realise too late they need US access, and Helix already has it in place.

There are three plausible exit scenarios.

First, outright acquisition by a major once production is established and reserves are proven.

Second, a strategic partnership or joint venture where a major takes a significant stake and handles offtake, allowing Helix to continue developing the field with balance sheet support.

Third, continued independent operation with incremental capital raises at a premium to fund the full twenty-well development, followed by either a trade sale or dividend recapitalisation once cash flow is substantial.

The first two scenarios seem most likely given industry consolidation trends and the strategic value of domestic helium supply. Major producers have largely exited exploration due to poor economics at small scale, but Rudyard’s size and grade justify acquisition once de-risked.

And the mantle helium signature and hydrogen potential add strategic value beyond simple NPV calculations.

Helium won’t stay cheap forever. Demand growth from semiconductors, MRI machines, quantum computing, and aerospace continues to outpace supply growth.

The US federal reserve stockpile is depleted. International sources are unreliable. And there simply aren’t many new large-scale helium discoveries in development globally.

Rudyard could ultimately support decades of production given the mantle replenishment component. That’s exactly the kind of asset a major wants in their portfolio: long-lived, low-risk domestic, and strategic. They’ll pay for it.

I will note that the gap between the Aeon estimate of 355 million cubic feet and Bo’s suggestion of 4 billion cubic feet is enormous. But this is the chap who quite literally wrote the book on this subject.

The Bottom Line

Helix Exploration offers an unusual combination of near-term catalysts, proven geology, exceptional management execution, and strategic optionality that’s rare in junior resources.

The company has moved from IPO to the cusp of production in eighteen months, drilled four successful wells, confirmed mantle helium and hydrogen potential and built processing infrastructure on time and budget.

The market is pricing this at less than £50 million — roughly one year of projected revenue from five wells, with no credit for expansion potential, hydrogen upside or strategic value to major producers.

Helix deserves significantly more attention than it’s receiving. The production milestone should provide a catalyst for revaluation, particularly if accompanied by an offtake announcement.

Compared to peers like Pulsar with exceptional helium grades but with well problems, uncertain flow rates in practice, and no near-term production timeline, Helix offers more tangible de-risked value.

Cash is king.

Imminent cash flow generation makes Rudyard one of the most compelling helium development projects in North America.

The upside, if the field performs as expected and a strategic buyer emerges, could be multiples of the current price over the next 18-24 months.

Sometimes the best investments are the ones where the company simply executes on a clear plan while the market is distracted elsewhere.

Helix appears to be doing exactly that.