Good Morning Team.
I hope you had a Happy Easter.
Let’s see how much money we’re making from Helix over the next few years.
These are back-of-the-bottle numbers — possibly written after a second glass — so take them with a pinch of salt and a twist of lime. But it’s good to see something of a recovery - and there’s a long way to go yet.
To start with, HEX is currently drilling Linda #1 at Rudyard in Montana, the second development well at the Rudyard Project.
CEO Bo Sears notes that:
‘On the one-year anniversary of our IPO, Helix is entering a new phase of growth: Drilling is underway at the Linda #1 well, joining the existing production wells at Darwin #1 and the recently acquired Weil #1…
…The progress from first exploration well to third production well along with a clear sight to positive cashflow in only one year has been phenomenal. The groundwork we've laid over the past 12 months will drive tangible forward momentum. We're excited by what's ahead and look forward to updating the market as further milestones are delivered.’
Linda #1 is roughly one mile south of Darwin #1 and inside the larger Rudyard Field structure. As a reminder, Darwin #1 - completed in November - flowed 2,750 Mcf/d of raw gas on a 40/64" choke. Extended flow testing determined an absolute open flow of over 4,500 Mcf/d with a 1.1% Helium grade in a predominantly nitrogen gas mix.
Interestingly, you can compare this to HE1’s Jackson-29 results from the Galactica Project in Colorado - projected stabilised flow rates between 350 Mcfd to 450 Mcfd (let’s assume 400 Mcfd) and ‘early samples’ returning a helium concentration of up to 3.30%:
Darwin #1:
2,750 Mcf/d × 1.1% = ~30.25 Mcf helium/day
At AOF: 4,500 Mcf/d × 1.1% = ~49.5 Mcf helium/day
Jackson-29:
400 Mcf/d × 3.3% = ~13.2 Mcf helium/day
There’s a winner here and it’s not even close.
Linda #1 will be the Company's third production well, joining Darwin #1 and the recently acquired Weil #1 well (announced 12 March, completed 19 March 2025), which tested 0.9% - 1.3% helium with a flow rate of 2,500mcf/d.
Hex anticipates:
‘that at conservative sustained flow rates of 2,000Mcf/day raw gas per well, 1.1% helium grade, and a helium sales price of $500/Mcf, production from the three production wells may generate pre-tax revenue of circa $12,000,000 per year.’
HEX is also surveying well sites for Production Well #4 and #5 to the south of Linda #1. The first has already been surveyed- while another development well location will be surveyed by end of April.
Crucially, it notes that ‘additional production wells will be self-financed through cashflow from the Rudyard plant.’
Linda #1 will be testing known helium reservoirs in the Souris and Red River formations - these reservoirs have previously shown significant gas accumulation over sizable intervals, with 276ft of reservoir tested in two perforations at Darwin #1 from 5,000ft to 5,100ft and 5,140ft to 5,276ft.
The well will also be extended to test potential for helium and hydrogen within the Cambrian Flathead and Precambrian strata. This formation showed both high grade helium and hydrogen at Ingomar but has never been drilled in the Rudyard area.
As Flathead reservoir conditions are unknown, any gas identified in this formation would be an additional upside.
Production progress
On the corporate side, the company has executed a letter of intent to purchase 20 acres of land for the Rudyard helium processing plant - construction of the plant is progressing as planned, with the Pressure Swing Adsorption module re-fit and the fabrication of the Membrane Package ongoing.
Once ready, the modules will be transported to the Rudyard site for final installation and connected to the three production wellheads - a modular approach which means that additional membranes can be installed as further production wells are bought on-line throughout 2025-26, maintaining the same feed volume to the PSA module while increasing helium output.
Helix remains on schedule with groundwork on plant footings to commence in late May and first helium production during summer 2025.
As an FYI, US summer ends on 22 September, so this is a very flexible route.
Now, let’s decode Bo’s latest gospel from the Church of Proactive — and see if we’re heading to Helium Heaven.
The key takeaways appear to be that:
Helix could stack 3-4 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of helium, making it one of the largest helium producers in the United States.
Rudyard is larger than initially anticipated; it could support up to 20 wells, far beyond the typical one-well fields in the sector.
The company may eventually justify building a helium liquefaction unit on-site.
Initial production will be gaseous helium, with liquefaction considered once critical volume is reached.
Once Linda #1 results are in and Weil #1 is re-perforated, resource sizing will be reassessed.
The plan is to drill toward the Southern Dome of the Rudyard field; Rudyard is a ‘string of pearls’ structure
Additional wells within the license area will be drilled as soon as initial production is online.
Darwin-1 well alone is expected to generate $4 million in pre-tax annual cash flow.
Economic modeling is being approached field-wide, not well-by-well.
Offtake discussions are ongoing, with interest from domestic and international buyers. Some parties are also interested in geological hydrogen potential in deeper zones (being tested in Linda #1).
He also commented on the 1977 study indicated 2.6 Bcf helium potential at Rudyard; current data suggests that could be significantly higher.
I wonder where he found that study?
The financials
Let’s consider.
The RNS on 23 January noted that Aeon calculated reserves of 355 million cubic feet of helium in the Northern Dome alone - with net revenue of $115.2m over a 12.5-year life of field and peak sustained post-tax cash flow of $15-25 million per year using a flat helium price of $500/Mcf.
But Bo is talking an upside potential of 4 billion cubic feet. And helium pricing is dynamic - $500/Mcf is based on prices controlled by a small consortium (okay, let’s call it what it is - a cartel).
US-based customers will now put a premium on US-based supply - just in case tariffs come a knocking again.
And the man is also talking perhaps 4 billion cubic feet of helium in the field - that’s more than 10 times the Aeon calculation - even with a very conservative helium price, it’s over $1 billion of revenue sitting in the ground: if 355 million cubic feet of helium generates revenue of $115.2m over a 12.5-year life of field, then it’s not hard to calculate that 4 billion cubic feet would generate $1.3 billion.
This also excludes hydrogen, for which there are serious tax credits on hand: the US offers a Clean Hydrogen Production Tax Credit (Section 45V) through the Inflation Reduction Act, providing up to $3 per kilogram of qualified clean hydrogen produced.
The numbers add up, if you consider Bo’s 20 potential wells comment - assume all wells last 12.5 years…
then 20 wells x $4 million per annum = $80 million per annum.
$80 million x 12.5 years = $1 billion.
The missing $300 million will be due to the conservative flow rate being used.
And there’s only 156,970,000 shares in issue.
Naturally, this all assumes few dusters, steady pricing and zero drama - which in gas exploration is a bit like wishing for more wishes.
And this is only revenue of course - a liquefaction unit could well increase the profit margin, but would come with a capex cost. OTOH, it does show HEX is plotting to produce significant amounts of gas and allows them to increase both the price and purity they sell at.
And yes, helium profit margins remains fairly opaque - but the market cap stands at only circa £26 million.
So I expect there’s more upside on the way - possibly enough to upgrade from supermarket single malt to something with a cork.
Let’s assume a new well drilled each quarter - then we will have five wells by the end of 2025, nine by end 2026, 14 by end 2027 and 19-20 by end 2028.
If you have $80 million in revenue and a classic 6x ratio - then all being well, the market cap could rise to $480 million by end 2027.
But let’s do year-end 2025. Let’s assume four wells only, or $20 million pa in revenue. The market cap should, all being equal, rise to 4x on a early-stage basis (risk adjusted) to $80 million (£64 million) - representing a 2.5x upside by year-end.
If all goes to plan.
And then it keeps going up like a helium balloon.
And then there’s Ingomar - but we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it.
The endgame
Helium is the disappearing element, and Bo thinks he has scored the jackpot.
He won’t be allowed to keep it very long. The major producers like Linde, AP&D or ExxonMobil will not want a newbie breaking the cartel. They’ll buy Rudyard once we get to around 10 wells - or arrange for an exclusive offtake once the field is proven up.
We know the company is talking to offtakers, including for the hydrogen.
Enjoy the balloon ride.