Wake me up when September ends?
Good Monday MINING AIM and welcome to another week.
August is over, the children are going back to school, and we might even see some liquidity start to pile back into the markets. I recorded an interview with Asiamet's Tony Manini earlier today as well - this should be out early this week.
I also had a chat with Rick Rule last week - in which he articulately espoused some excellent views.
AIM stocks to watch in September 2024
Here's what I'm hoping to see this month:
Alien Metals - just get the Hancock deal signed, sealed, delivered.
Arc Minerals - Botswana assays should be coming back this month (visible chalcocite) and some concrete news on what's going on at the ground in Zambia.
Amaroq Minerals - potentially hints of an early mineral resource upgrade, as alluded to in the recent earnings call.
Fulcrum Metals - exclusivity agreement with Extrakt. Pretty please.
Greatland Gold- deal to take control of Havieron and Telfer from Newmont over the line.
Helix Exploration - Ingomar commercial discovery.
Guardian Metal - assays (grant funding/China tungsten export ban early Q4).
Power Metal - ACAM Athabasca JV signed off, material Power Arabia news.
Rome Resources - tin assays generating evidence Bisie North boasts the same world class grades as its neighbour.
Sovereign Metals - graphite test work confirming the graphite is high quality (the only real 'risk' at present).
Panther Metals - drilling plans and how they will finance the program.
Metals One - Råna Ni-Cu-Co Project assays, Black Schist PEA in November.
It would be great to see all of these catalysts come to pass - you can't always control a share price, but you can control corporate development.
But I also want to touch on the politics.
What is Labour going to do?
The UK budget is scheduled for 30 October 2024 (presumably Halloween would be a little on the nose for scary announcements).
Having ruled out increasing taxes on 'ordinary working people,' including VAT, income tax, NI (and also corporation tax), there are few areas where Reeves can make a real cash grab that will make any difference.
For some context, removing the universal winter fuel allowance will 'save' £1.6 billion according to the government, though this ignores that many will still be able to wade through the 243-question form if they are eligible for the payment.
This is to 'stop a run on the pound' according to some hopeless incompetent - £1.6 billion is pocket change in government spending terms.
But given the lunatics are now running the asylum, what other delights are on their way?
For reference, corporation tax under the previous government rose from 19% to 25%. Dividend tax rose, while the dividend allowance fell from £5,000 to £500. The capital gains allowance fell from £12,300 to £3,000. Entrepreneur's Relief fell from a £10 million limit to the rebranded BADR limit of £1 million. And on and on it goes....
But there's still not enough money apparently - so the plan is to drive as much wealth out of the country as possible.
Increasing the tax on oil and gas companies in the UK to 78%, will see investment in the sector to plunge and result in a loss of £13 billion to the UK economy from 2025 to 2029, putting 35,000 jobs at risk according to Offshore Energies UK.
But that's okay, because we're swimming in cash over here.
And this budget? If they put up Capital Gains tax to 45% for additional ratepayers, the investment exodus will be massive. If they significantly reduce the pension lump sum, or tax relief, then again investment will tank as workers simply won't bother.
Increased employer NI? Falling employment. Increased tax on landlords? Higher rents.
Inheritance tax increases or getting rid of exemptions?
The real fear for small caps is that the AIM exemption gets scrapped.
But more widely, if CGT goes up to 45% for all investments, then junior resource could potentially be even more in trouble than today - especially annoying given the green shoots that are starting to show. Because if your CoS is around 20%, and half of any return goes to HMRC, then it starts to not make any sense at all.
But paradoxically, if the IHT exemption for AIM continues to be a thing, and CGT rises to 45%, then you could instead see renewed interest in the index, as the government will have created a larger tax incentive to go for small caps.
My real hope is that the government carves out an AIM support package; no CGT on AIM shares held for three years+ would help.
But the real danger right now is that we have two months to go, and nobody knows exactly what they're going to do...
And all the while, the entrepreneurs of this country are looking for the exit.
- Charles Archer, 2/9/2024