THIS PODCAST IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. FOR INFORMATION ONLY.
In this wide-ranging conversation with Alessandro Valentino, product manager and overseer of uranium and nuclear strategies at VanEck, he walks us through the investment thesis behind the VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF (NLR).
With $181.4 billion in assets under management firmwide, VanEck offers this specialised vehicle to investors seeking exposure to the nuclear energy value chain.
Portfolio Construction and Top Holdings
The discussion begins with an examination of NLR’s anchor positions. Cameco and Constellation Energy each represent 8% of the portfolio, creating an intentional balance between uranium mining and nuclear power generation.
This equal-weighting strategy reflects a deliberate approach to capturing value across the entire nuclear fuel cycle rather than making concentrated bets on one segment over another.
The conversation also examines more speculative positions like Oklo, which represents 4.5% of the portfolio despite being a pre-revenue company focused on small modular reactor technology.
This substantial allocation to next-generation nuclear raises questions about balancing established operators with emerging technology plays. The portfolio also includes CGN Power, a Chinese state-owned utility, as the sixth-largest holding, bringing geopolitical considerations into focus given current US-China tensions.
With 28 total holdings and the top 10 comprising 55% of assets, NLR takes a moderately concentrated approach. The discussion explores why the fund doesn’t simply focus on five or six highest-conviction names, and what strategic role the smaller positions play in achieving diversification and capturing different aspects of the nuclear investment opportunity.
Geographic Exposure and Concentration
The fund’s geographic profile shows notable concentration, with 48% in US equities and 17% in Canada, creating nearly two-thirds North American exposure. Positions in Kazakhstan and China add international diversification but also introduce additional considerations around geopolitical risk and supply chain dynamics.
Kazakhstan deserves special attention as a critical player in global uranium supply. Recent announcements of 10% production cuts for 2026, combined with a new tax regime and domestic reactor construction plans, raise questions about whether Kazakhstan will remain a reliable global supplier or increasingly prioritise domestic consumption.
The discussion also addresses US policy developments, particularly the $2.7 billion commitment to rebuild domestic uranium conversion and enrichment capacity. This represents a strategic effort to reduce dependence on Russian nuclear fuel services, with price floor mechanisms potentially providing tailwinds for certain portfolio companies involved in the domestic supply chain buildout.
The Supply-Demand Dynamics
At the heart of the uranium thesis lies a structural supply deficit. Current production meets only about 90% of reactor demand, with the gap historically filled by secondary supplies—primarily inventories, recycled fuel, and material from decommissioned weapons. The critical issue is that these secondary sources are depleting rapidly.
The conversation examines a fundamental market puzzle: uranium prices above $70 per pound should theoretically incentivize new production, yet supply isn’t responding quickly. This could reflect either producer discipline aimed at avoiding the boom-bust cycles that characterised previous uranium markets, or perhaps more fundamental challenges in developing new mining projects compared to a decade ago.
Financial buyers have also entered the market significantly, with Sprott’s physical uranium trust adding nearly 8 million pounds in 2025 alone. This raises questions about whether financial market participants are providing helpful price discovery or potentially distorting what should fundamentally be a utility-driven commodity market.
The World Nuclear Association projects reactor uranium requirements more than doubling by 2040, but translating long-term demand forecasts into actionable investment theses requires confidence that supply will actually materialise when needed, despite the decade-plus timelines for permitting and developing new uranium mines.
Valuation, Volatility and Risk Management
NLR has experienced substantial volatility, trading between a 52-week high of $162 and a low of $67. This price action raises important questions about appropriate position sizing for investors with different risk tolerances.
The conversation also notes that VanEck’s European UCITS uranium fund doubled in three months while NLR grew more steadily, suggesting potentially different investor dynamics or sensitivity to energy security themes across regions.
The Forward View
Looking ahead, several catalysts appear on the horizon: uranium’s addition to the US Critical Minerals list, $80 billion in Westinghouse reactor commitments, and political changes with potential policy implications.
Yet long development timelines and persistent regulatory complexity mean the path forward remains uncertain. The discussion concludes by exploring what market participants might be missing or overestimating about uranium’s prospects.
Listen in!
