Shall we all RNS at the same time?

Feast or Famine these days

Good Morning Team.

Could the CEOs deciding to release all material news on Tuesday at 7am please understand that it’s a bit of a nightmare to dissect everything? Please spread news out through the week as this is getting a bit distressing :)

Before we get cracking, a quick piece of business:

Rome Resources has an open investor call tomorrow at 11am UK time. You can register here if interested:

https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_nUuljfOHQwyqpRVrFAUFMw 

Let’s dive in.

Strategy, stratagem

We’re going to start with Guardian Metal Resources and Technology Minerals. At first glance, it would appear that there is no link between the two companies - but first glances are often deceiving.

Both companies enjoy the presence of Chang Oh Turkmani as a strategic adviser/non-executive director respectively - Turkmani is one of those people who operate quietly in the background, getting stuff done. And if the rumours are to be believed, closer to President Trump than you would imagine - there are some interesting donations to consider here.

While the risk remains with TM1 that it faces a HARL/BIDSTACK fate (shareholders lose out and the company gets repackaged), when it comes out of suspension there could be a decent rise in the making.

After the share price fall in NASDAQ-listed Critical Metals, you’re still looking at $8.9 million in shares in a highly liquid company with a lock-in only until the end of February.

Yes, roughly $2.2 million will need to be delivered to GBML and other creditors. but that leaves $7.7 million to come in…pay off that damn death spiral financing and get cracking in 2025.

Has TM1 been fucking about for ages? Yes.

Is there probably more debt than you think? Yes.

Is there a trade in this once it unsuspends? Also yes.

The positioning of the company with a Labour government in power hell bent on green energy and recycling at any cost, remains attractive.

Then we have GMET. Good work Oliver.

6m @ 0.413% WO3, with higher-grade zones up to 0.917% WO3 is the stand out - though equivalent grades, like 0.55% WO3Eq or 2.04% CuEq, also impress.

Many economic tungsten deposits report grades ranging from 0.2% to 1.0% WO3, depending on deposit type and scale. Desert Scheelite's grades are competitive, especially with the higher-grade intervals.

Consider the Sangdong Mine (South Korea) which historically averaged 0.4-0.6% WO3. Or Barruecopardo (Spain) which averages about 0.3-0.4% WO3, with higher-grade zones exceeding 0.7% WO3.

The 46m intersection length is also relatively substantial, particularly for the open-pit potential. Remember, grade is only half of the story.

On the copper potential, I think we need some more detail.

Intersections of 2.8m @ 1.0% Cu and localised high grades of 0.4m @ 2.96% Cu are not nothing, while the highlight of 1.5m @ 5.02% Cu is very high grade.

This remains a tungsten play, so additional copper, silver, garnet and zinc all helps. The question is one of what kind of copper deposit it is we’re playing with - a copper porphyry usually averages 0.3% to 0.6% copper with higher grade zones in small intervals.

Consider the higher grade porphyry systems: Escondida (Chile), a genuinely world-class copper mine, averages 0.6-0.7% Cu. Grasberg (Indonesia) has high-grade zones exceeding 1.0% Cu, but bulk averages are often lower.

In essence, if this is a porphyry, we need to see a computer model of the grading/lengths that include both the higher grade short intercepts and the lower grade lengths.

With tungsten getting the export ban next week, as I predicted well over a year ago, the next step will be grant funding. I’m guessing based on current information $15 million could well land in early Q1.

It might be more. If Donald whacks on some massive fuck-off tariffs as promised on Canada, Mexico and China, onshoring becomes even higher of a political priority.

Now we just need Trump to make a visit to GREAT AMERICAN TUNGSTEN.

That will please our strategic investors!

It’s also worth mentioning Energy Pathways, which has now joined Hydrogen UK, the UK's leading trade association for advancing hydrogen technologies, which includes BP, SSE and Shell among its members.

I haven’t had time to properly analyse the company’s MESH project, but would note that like TM1, EPP is perfectly positioned. If Labour is going to throw £22 billion at unproven carbon capture tech, there’s going to be cash splashed around for energy storage.

Of course, the share price rise suggests the market knows this.

Lawsuits galore

Incathera has sunk today due to third-party allegations of patent infringement. The company deems the claims baseless and is engaging with the party to resolve the issue, prepared to take legal action if needed.

This has forced a delayed in the launch of its Skin + Cell skincare range and accordingly, financial forecasts have been withdrawn.

These are claims for the company to answer. However, it’s becoming ever clearer that launching a malicious lawsuit to sink a small cap company is now a viable tactic - and it’s hard to know whether an individual claim is malicious or has some merit.

This one seems timed to do maximum damage; this third party could have lodged its complaint for months now and chose to do so now to cause pain. Regardless, there may be a high risk trade in here, especially given the spread.

INC has previously noted it owns patents covering its tech advance, and you would imagine the titanic partners it is selling too would have done their own due diligence.

But tread carefully.

Tech advances

Another company with leading patented tech, Ondo, has once again outdone itself, securing a new contract with Selective Insurance to expand its LeakBot rollout to Virginia, Pennsylvania, Indiana, and Ohio, following a successful launch in New Jersey.

The LeakBot is now in 18 US states, and solves a problem that has long eluded some of the brightest minds in insurance. Consider my coverage in June 2023; the company has only advanced since.

The question, of course, is on cash. At some point, Ondo will eventually need to give up a big chunk of the business to pay for a global roll out, but this is a tough balancing act as the longer they grow going it alone the larger the size of the pie they will retain.

It remains one of my favoured plays; few small cap stocks have the genuine potential to go global. One day, there may be a LeakBot in every home in the world.

It may also be worth noting Acuity RM - this company has so far disappointed. Options, poor share price performance, a placing, concerns over the software, few contracts etc etc…

But it’s managed to get a £250,000 five-year contract (£50kpa) to a ‘leading international provider of software and logistics services to global markets.’ Is this finally the start of a larger pipeline, which would make the 2p share price an attractive entry point…or not?

I think this is the first contract since May - but if another contract gets announced soon, this may be attractive on the low.

Amaroq & Alien

A reminder than some AIM companies are titans, while others are minnows.

Amaroq remains one of the highest quality stocks on the index. Maiden drilling frrom its two scout holes at the Nanoq Project in Southern Greenland's Nanortalik Gold Belt has come back: 133.1m intersected three zones of high-grade gold mineralisation, including visible gold in quartz veins up to 3m thick, with grades peaking at 123 g/t Au over 0.5m.

As a reminder, first gold from Nalunaq is imminent, as is an MRE upgrade for the flagship. Amaroq will print money from Q2 2025 and I expect it to be a top winner of 2025.

At the other end of the market, Alien Metals has secured an Exploration Incentive Scheme grant of up to AU$120,000 to co-fund deep diamond drilling at its Pinderi Hills - the money is perhaps not as important as the governmental stamp of approval.

Hundreds of companies apply for these grants and only 50 get one.

Consider WA1 Resources, an EIS funding alumni with a US$880 million market cap - at the time of the grant funding it had a AU$0.17 share price, which spiked to AU$22.38 within 18 months. A cheeky 13,00% return ain’t bad - and yes, this was an extraordinary outlier.

But it serves as a reminder for what is possible, and why people invest in these microcap companies.

With JV talks in place for both Hancock and Pinderi, this remains a conviction play at these lows - and while there will be need for cash soon, the company in my view should announce a deal for one of the assets before a knock on the door comes.

That’s all for now.