Monkey go to space

valuation is bananas

People not understand SpaceX IPO.

Me explain.

There monkey.

Monkey build rocket. Rocket go to space. Come back. Land on pad like embarrassed to have left.

This impressive.

Monkey very clever.

Monkey build bigger rocket.

Starship.

Most powerful rocket ever built.

Starship go up very fast.

Then Starship explode.

Monkey try again.

Starship go up very fast.

Then Starship explode again.

Monkey try again.

Starship go up very fast.

Starship not explode.

Monkey apply same philosophy to IPO.

Price very fast at $135.

Monkey not sure about explosion part yet.

Now file prospectus.

SpaceX prospectus have many pictures of planets.

Very pretty.

Monkey study planets carefully.

None of planets generating revenue.

Now monkey think about AIM.

AIM is London market. Alternative Investment Market.

AIM have Nominated Adviser. NOMAD.

NOMAD job is look at company and decide: is this suitable for public market or obvious fraud?

In past, NOMAD approved company called ‘blockchain but for sheep.’

NOMAD approved CEO with ambitious hair and PowerPoint that say TAM: £4.7 trillion.

NOMAD approved company whose only customer is CEO’s brother-in-law.

NOMAD approve anything.

Now. Monkey take SpaceX prospectus to NOMAD.

Monkey say: here company. Very exciting.

Please approve for market.

NOMAD open prospectus.

NOMAD see planets.

NOMAD count planets.

NOMAD look for revenue.

Lost $4.28 billion last quarter.

NOMAD look for path to profitability.

Path go through Mars.

NOMAD look for comparable company to value against.

There no comparable company.

NOMAD look at AI revenue projection.

Goldman say AI revenue go from $3.2 billion to $322 billion in five years.

100x.

In five years.

NOMAD approve many press release.

NOMAD never seen $322 billion in five years.

Monkey say: but Goldman write projection.

NOMAD say: Goldman also leading the IPO.

Both monkey silent.

NOMAD finally say: we cannot approve this.

Monkey say: it fine. We doing it on NASDAQ.

Now. Valuation.

$1.77 trillion.

That 100x revenue. Three time more expensive than Nvidia. Company everyone already think too expensive.

Morningstar say SpaceX worth $780 billion.

Not $1.77 trillion.

$780 billion still enormous. Could buy Denmark. With change left for Norway.

But $780 billion is half of ask.

Market say: thank you Morningstar. Will ignore.

Here who agree with $1.77 trillion.

Goldman Sachs.

Goldman leading IPO. Morgan Stanley supporting. This important context.

Goldman also say total revenue reach $474 billion by 2030. EBITDA of $352 billion.

Morgan Stanley say SpaceX reach $3.4 trillion revenue by 2040.

$3.4 trillion.

More than Germany.

Monkey check if Germany still exist in 2040.

Monkey assume yes.

Goldman paid large fee to underwrite IPO.

Now.

Google.

Google pay SpaceX $12 billion per year for AI compute.

Google also own 6% of SpaceX.

Market pricing SpaceX at 94 times revenue.

Monkey do maths.

Google 6% stake now worth $106 billion.

Google pay $12 billion to make $94 billion in paper profit.

Maybe Google find Powell money printer.

Now. Banks.

Goldman and Morgan Stanley buy shares from SpaceX at $135. Sell to investors.

If investor not buy, bank hold shares.

Bank not want to hold shares at $135 if stock goes to $80.

Bank very motivated.

Institutional investor look at $135.

Do maths.

Maths not good.

Institutional investor say: we need more aggressive numbers to justify position size.

Banking monkey phone research monkey.

Banking monkey say: can you make model more optimistic.

Research monkey look at model.

Research monkey already at Goldman $322 billion projection.

Research monkey at maximum optimism.

Research monkey sweat.

Jamie Dimon taking meetings. David Solomon taking meetings.

All hands on deck.

Institutional monkey not biting. Banks now on hook for difference between $135 and wherever stock actually trades, multiplied by number of shares sitting in inventory.

Bank go to retail.

Normal IPO: 5-10% retail.

SpaceX: 30% retail.

Very generous.

Bank also phone index providers.

Index funds must buy whatever in index.

Institutional monkey own index funds.

You WILL eat banana.

Some index say yes.

S&P say no.

S&P not dumb.

But SpaceX structured for NASDAQ 100 inclusion 15 trading days after IPO.

Now. Fidelity.

Fidelity announce: SpaceX IPO available to any customer with $2,000 in account.

Before needed up to $500,000.

Fidelity say this because SpaceX reserving much higher percentage for retail.

Monkey read that again.

Last week need $500,000.

This week need $2,000.

Fidelity not say: institutional monkey not interested.

Fidelity say: great news for retail access.

This like when sophisticated monkey reject AIM placing. Company rely on WRAP.

Hang on.

Who offering SpaceX to UK retail?

Oh no.

Rules exist to protect retail monkey.

Soon find out why.

IPO now oversubscribed. More orders than shares available.

Like every AIM IPO ever.

Every AIM IPO oversubscribed. Blockchain for sheep: oversubscribed. App for rating kebab shop: oversubscribed. CEO with four failed companies and very ambitious hair: oversubscribed.

Oversubscribed mean nothing.

Oversubscribed mean monkey put in indication of interest. Indication of interest not same as money. Indication of interest mean: monkey curious.

Monkey might buy. Monkey also might not.

Now. Flipping.

Retail monkey very excited. Retail monkey want buy IPO shares and sell quickly for profit.

This called flipping.

Fidelity say: sell within 15 days, banned 6 months. Second flip, banned 1 year. Third flip, permanently banned by your SSN.

Permanently banned by your SSN.

Fidelity has monkey’s social security number.

If sell IPO shares, no Anthropic IPO for you.

Goldman Sachs, who buy shares from SpaceX at $135 and sell to market, also banned from flipping.

But have track record of ignoring rules.

Goldman not banned from future IPOs for flipping.

Just small fine.

Retail monkey sell day two: banned for year.

Goldman sell day one: fee earned.

Same trade.

Different monkey.

Now insiders.

95% of SpaceX owned by insiders.

5% float going public.

Insiders sitting on $1.66 trillion of paper wealth they couldn’t sell.

IPO change that.

And SpaceX build in early lock-up release.

After first earnings report, insiders can sell 20% of shares. Before standard 180-day lockup expire.

Rocket monkey very smart.

Design rocket that come back.

Also design exit that come early.

Rocket monkey think about everything.

Here bigger picture.

In next few months:

Google raise $80 billion equity.

SpaceX raise $75 billion.

OpenAI raise $100 billion.

Anthropic raise at $965 billion valuation.

$350 billion of fresh paper.

Then second wave.

Anthropic employee who joined late 2024 with $100,000 equity now sitting on $5 million on paper.

Thousands like them.

At SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks, Stripe, xAI.

Every one, future seller.

At IPO. At lockup. At next tender.

Founders. Employees. VCs. All converting paper to cash at same moment in history.

SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic alone will raise more money than 300 biggest IPOs in 2000.

So who bag holder?

Meta IPO, 2012. Everyone think free money.

Stock dump 70% in 100 days.

Retail buy hype.

Insiders get liquidity.

Same setup.

Different rocket.

Monkey return to NOMAD.

Monkey say: okay but rocket real. Starlink real. 6,000 satellite in orbit. Reusable rocket land on floating platform in ocean.

NOMAD agree.

NOMAD say: yes. Rocket very real. Technology very impressive. Monkey who build rocket very smart.

Monkey say: on AIM, NOMAD once approved company whose product was app for rating local kebab shop. Monkey lost everything.

NOMAD say: SpaceX real company. Real rocket. Real satellite internet. Real revenue. Losing money, but real.

NOMAD say: but $1.77 trillion for company losing $4 billion per quarter, with AI revenue projection requiring 100x growth written by bank running the IPO, with 95% insider ownership and early lockup exit built in, with 30% retail allocation because big money not interested at this price, eligibility threshold cut from $500,000 to $2,000 in one week, surrounded by $350 billion of other exit liquidity coming to market same time —

NOMAD say: I approved blockchain for sheep.

NOMAD say: I would not approve this.

Monkey say: but NASDAQ real, AIM casino.

NOMAD say: this true. AIM is casino.

NOMAD say: but in casino, house fair. If monkey lucky, monkey win.

Retail monkey nod.

Retail monkey still want shares.

It go up Day One.