I genuinely think your article is better than any article you or I have ever written. The simplicity is sublime and the metaphor is powerful. But perhaps I can add something to your discourse. Oh no here comes more waffle mutters Grezz.
The Shanghai market is classic Sun Tzu. I believe four lessons of Sun Tzu are relevant to Monkey.
1. "Subdue the enemy without fighting"
Sun Tzu taught that the supreme excellence is to break the enemy's resistance without a single battle. For decades, the West (COMEX/LBMA) set the silver price using "paper" contracts (leverage).
By demanding physical delivery, Shanghai is forcing the market to recognise the tangible reality of the metal over the financial abstraction of the contract. They aren't "fighting" the COMEX price; they are simply making it irrelevant by creating a separate, physical-only reality in the East where the metal actually exists.
2. "All warfare is based on deception"
Strategy: The "Invisible" Inventory Drain.
Sun Tzu advises: "When able to attack, we must seem unable."
Throughout 2024 and 2025, while Western analysts focused on "soft levels of silver demand" and "high interest rates," Shanghai was quietly absorbing 300+ tons of silver per month.
By the time the West noticed the vaults were hitting record lows (under 600 tons in early 2026), the "siege" weapons were already complete. The supply was moved from public exchange vaults to sovereign "dark" storage.
3. "Avoid what is strong, strike what is weak"
Strategy: Exploiting the Fractional Reserve Weakness.
Sun Tzu’s core principle is to strike where the enemy is most vulnerable. The Western silver market is "strong" in liquidity but "weak" in physical backing (often cited as having 100+ paper ounces for every 1 physical ounce).
The Shanghai Strike: Taking physical delivery is the ultimate strike at this weakness. If even 5% of "paper" holders follow Shanghai’s lead and demand delivery, the Western system faces a "Force Majeure" event. Shanghai is using its massive industrial demand (Solar/EVs) as the "heavy infantry" to force this collapse of the paper system.
4. "The soldier spirit is keenest in the morning"
Strategy: The Export Licencing "Wall".
In January 2026, China moved from "collecting" to "fortifying" by introducing strict one-order, one-approval export licenses for silver.
Sun Tzu would call this "Occupying the High Ground." By controlling the outflow, China has ensured that their own "warriors" (Solar and tech manufacturers) have the "vitality" (raw materials) they need, while their competitors in the West are left to "tire" in a market of scarcity.
Think the GoT Battle of the Bastards and how the Wildlings were mercilessly slaughtered by the Boltons under a structured grind.
I do not consider that we have yet seen the Sun Tzu playbook across all critical metals and materials. But make no mistake. The events are orchestrated.
China has been playing the long game for a long time - and now is reaping the reward of a careful strategy that the West should have been preparing for decades ago. Now we're going to see massive inflation to pay for our foolishness.
Great time to be a metals investor, not good for the world. And I don't see Sansa coming to the recuse this time.
Remarkable how a humble banana can expose the difference between owning something and merely believing you own something. Aristotle would have enjoyed this one.
You're right. I'm very picky about bananas. Very narrow margin between unripe and too ripe. Luckily, my partner takes up the slack. She's not fussy about much. Lucky I am... :-)
Sorry to bother you Charles, I know you don't have a crystal ball, I have a ball but it's broken at the moment. Do you think bananas will settle around 3k, although the current cost of gathered is somewhere between 1.6-2k + 30% margins equal 2400$ or will we go down 10% below the current price of gathered like in 2015-2016, i.e. $2400- 10% equal around 2k? As an economist and a world-renowned mineral specialist, an opinion from a lord in the field is always welcome. I appreciate always it your opinions🙂
Ooer, dreaded stop losses. I've seen many a disaster with folk locked out, temporarily at least, on drops manufactured in part for the very reason. Some at price way below stop loss. Best of British to you though.
And what are your favourite bananas ? Gold , silver , platinum ones ? I don’t actually own the bananas but the holes in the ground where they come from ( not trees apparently.) hochschild hoc seems a particularly interesting source of bananas at the moment.
Brilliant, that is brilliant. Made me laugh so much. Thankyou
Possibly my best work yet
How many bananas does the London Bullion Exchange have ?
Zero banana bars available sadly
Mostly banana 🍌 fumes 🥈😁😁
Mr Archer
You've summed up the banana split of two Silver markets brilliantly.
https://thatstocksguy.substack.com/p/market-is-bananas
I genuinely think your article is better than any article you or I have ever written. The simplicity is sublime and the metaphor is powerful. But perhaps I can add something to your discourse. Oh no here comes more waffle mutters Grezz.
The Shanghai market is classic Sun Tzu. I believe four lessons of Sun Tzu are relevant to Monkey.
1. "Subdue the enemy without fighting"
Sun Tzu taught that the supreme excellence is to break the enemy's resistance without a single battle. For decades, the West (COMEX/LBMA) set the silver price using "paper" contracts (leverage).
By demanding physical delivery, Shanghai is forcing the market to recognise the tangible reality of the metal over the financial abstraction of the contract. They aren't "fighting" the COMEX price; they are simply making it irrelevant by creating a separate, physical-only reality in the East where the metal actually exists.
2. "All warfare is based on deception"
Strategy: The "Invisible" Inventory Drain.
Sun Tzu advises: "When able to attack, we must seem unable."
Throughout 2024 and 2025, while Western analysts focused on "soft levels of silver demand" and "high interest rates," Shanghai was quietly absorbing 300+ tons of silver per month.
By the time the West noticed the vaults were hitting record lows (under 600 tons in early 2026), the "siege" weapons were already complete. The supply was moved from public exchange vaults to sovereign "dark" storage.
3. "Avoid what is strong, strike what is weak"
Strategy: Exploiting the Fractional Reserve Weakness.
Sun Tzu’s core principle is to strike where the enemy is most vulnerable. The Western silver market is "strong" in liquidity but "weak" in physical backing (often cited as having 100+ paper ounces for every 1 physical ounce).
The Shanghai Strike: Taking physical delivery is the ultimate strike at this weakness. If even 5% of "paper" holders follow Shanghai’s lead and demand delivery, the Western system faces a "Force Majeure" event. Shanghai is using its massive industrial demand (Solar/EVs) as the "heavy infantry" to force this collapse of the paper system.
4. "The soldier spirit is keenest in the morning"
Strategy: The Export Licencing "Wall".
In January 2026, China moved from "collecting" to "fortifying" by introducing strict one-order, one-approval export licenses for silver.
Sun Tzu would call this "Occupying the High Ground." By controlling the outflow, China has ensured that their own "warriors" (Solar and tech manufacturers) have the "vitality" (raw materials) they need, while their competitors in the West are left to "tire" in a market of scarcity.
Think the GoT Battle of the Bastards and how the Wildlings were mercilessly slaughtered by the Boltons under a structured grind.
I do not consider that we have yet seen the Sun Tzu playbook across all critical metals and materials. But make no mistake. The events are orchestrated.
Best
The Oak Bloke
Indeed.
China has been playing the long game for a long time - and now is reaping the reward of a careful strategy that the West should have been preparing for decades ago. Now we're going to see massive inflation to pay for our foolishness.
Great time to be a metals investor, not good for the world. And I don't see Sansa coming to the recuse this time.
Remarkable how a humble banana can expose the difference between owning something and merely believing you own something. Aristotle would have enjoyed this one.
Yes, many of these bananas are in the realm of forms and not physical reality
Oh no, someone's taking literary cues from The Oak Bloke!! ;-)
Grezz, Grezz, that likes to gripe; Grezz, Grezz, banana too ripe
You're right. I'm very picky about bananas. Very narrow margin between unripe and too ripe. Luckily, my partner takes up the slack. She's not fussy about much. Lucky I am... :-)
Me monkey that bought stakes on trees that grew bananas.
Monkey not smart. Monkey does not understand futures, derivatives, and ETFs on derivatives of ETFs.
Banana fall from tree, and monkey gets banana.
(This comment was not about bananas)
Clever monkey. American monkeys will try to get other monkeys to buy tree stakes to take pressure off banana demand.
It will work. For a time
First monkey to buy stake be happy
Monkey smart enough to know when other monkey full of 💩 Monkey ahead of game 🧐🥈👌
That’s brilliant, Charles, as always. New York monkey does not know what to do now…
Pick a monkey god and pray
Why some argue only monkey who can take physical delivery should be allowed to trade bananas
That would make sense but not as fun sadly
Superb. Very very funny and absolutely nails it. I love the mental image of the Shanghai monkey leaning back in his chair. Thank you!
Excellent article! LOL
Have you done/are you expecting to do an article on Ferro Alloy #FAR?
Possibly. Need to talk to management before I write any articles first though so may be some time
I haven’t seen a more sophisticated analysis on the global market schemes in a long time! Made me smile all day. Great piece of work. Thanks.
Absolutely brilliant 👏 your post did cheer me up, made my day actually 😄
Sorry to bother you Charles, I know you don't have a crystal ball, I have a ball but it's broken at the moment. Do you think bananas will settle around 3k, although the current cost of gathered is somewhere between 1.6-2k + 30% margins equal 2400$ or will we go down 10% below the current price of gathered like in 2015-2016, i.e. $2400- 10% equal around 2k? As an economist and a world-renowned mineral specialist, an opinion from a lord in the field is always welcome. I appreciate always it your opinions🙂
One of your best Charles, bet you had fun writing it.
So much fun. Sometimes best analysis is simplest
Current thoughts on GGP? Still in?
Yep. Stop losses now in place though, too much to lose. Staying in as price discovery continues
Ooer, dreaded stop losses. I've seen many a disaster with folk locked out, temporarily at least, on drops manufactured in part for the very reason. Some at price way below stop loss. Best of British to you though.
New York declares banana glut on one tree!
Ignore the failed orchard, Napoleon says to Snowball
And what are your favourite bananas ? Gold , silver , platinum ones ? I don’t actually own the bananas but the holes in the ground where they come from ( not trees apparently.) hochschild hoc seems a particularly interesting source of bananas at the moment.