Hormuz Closed?

No more banana

Monkey no understand new global crisis.

Me explain.

In Middle East, there small piece of water.

Only 21 mile wide.

Through it, every single day:

20% of world oil.

20% world gas.

Most world fertiliser.

50% world sulphur.

This big problem.

Monkey not know sulphur was thing to worry about.

Monkey thought sulphur was thing volcano do.

Monkey wrong.

Sulphur become sulphuric acid.

Sulphuric acid most produced chemical on earth.

Without it, there be no copper, no cobalt, no transformer, no EV battery, no data centre.

Sulphuric acid load-bearing material of monkey civilisation, and 50% of it come through 21 miles.

Monkey think for long time.

Monkey think about model.

You see, in every trading floor there model.

Model have many tab.

Tab seven say: geopolitical risk premium = 2%.

War?

2%.

Revolution?

2%.

Islamic fundamentalist terrorist pointing at map and making throat-cutting gesture at shipping lane?

2%.

Tab seven not updated since 2019.

Tab seven now psychological infrastructure.

Everyone reassured by tab seven.

Everyone go home.

Taiwan not going home.

Taiwan has 11 days of gas reserve.

TSMC — company that make 90% of world’s advanced chip that go into every phone and server and weapons system and hospital machine — use almost 9% of Taiwan electricity.

No gas mean no power mean no chip mean no phone, no AI, no military hardware, no medical device, no anything.

Monkey count 11 days on fingers.

Monkey look at how long strait been quiet.

Monkey count again.

Meanwhile there nitrogen problem.

33% of world nitrogen fertiliser feedstock move through strait.

Nitrogen become fertiliser.

Fertiliser become food.

Without it, planet support four billion fewer monkey than currently exist.

Analyst monkey go on television.

Analyst show oil price chart.

Oil up 30%.

Analyst very concerned about oil price chart.

Analyst not show sulphur chart.

Analyst not show Taiwan gas reserve chart.

Analyst not show fertiliser feedstock chart.

Analyst not show helium chart.

Analyst not show Dubai food shortage.

Now, remember.

There be other monkey.

Gerald.

Gerald tanker insurance monkey.

Gerald been at desk since 1987.

Gerald used to do Sudoku.

Gerald not doing Sudoku now.

Gerald raise premium on oil tanker, gas tanker, fertiliser ship, helium cylinder carrier. Gerald raise premium so high he feel something he can’t name.

Gerald wife tell him come to bed.

Helium monkey, which is niche but very nervous subspecies, been explaining this for 11 year.

To anyone who make eye contact for too long.

Qatar has most of world’s helium.

Qatar inside gulf.

Without helium:

MRI machine stop.

Chip fabrication stop.

Guidance system stop.

Helium monkey told everyone.

Other monkey nod politely.

Went back to talking oil.

Now oil having problem and everything also having problem.

Tokyo monkey not sleeping.

Japan island.

No domestic energy.

83% of oil through Hormuz.

Very specific cultural memory of what happen to island monkeys who run out of fuel.

Tokyo monkey look at reserve.

Tokyo monkey look at Gerald’s premium.

Tokyo monkey look at 11 days Taiwan has.

Then look at own numbers.

Tokyo monkey drink Sake.

European monkey doing separate maths.

Spent decade building LNG terminal to replace Russian gas.

Make big speech.

‘Energy independence!’

‘Strategic autonomy!’

Many paragraph.

But LNG come through Hormuz.

European monkey not mention this in speech.

Also not mention that fertiliser come through Hormuz, and fertiliser become banana.

And without banana, monkey have problem.

In Beijing, calm monkey watching.

Beijing monkey also import through strait. But Beijing monkey spend 40 years building pipeline, building port deal, building relationship with monkey Washington refuse to talk to.

Very patient.

Very long-term.

Very annoying.

Make phone call.

Next day.

Gerald premium drop slightly. Oil fall $8.

Central bank monkey exhale carefully.

Tab seven updated.

Now say 3%.

But nothing resolved.

Strait still 21 miles wide.

Tehran monkey still have mine.

Gerald still checking screen at 2am.

Taiwan still counting days.

Fertiliser monkey still ignored.

Sulphur monkey sending email nobody opening.

And somewhere, regular monkey — who thought this was oil story like analyst said — now reading about sulphur for first time.

Reading about nitrogen.

Reading about 11 days.

Realising that oil price chart not real story.

Oil price chart was what television show so you do not look at the other charts.

Iran not need missile.

Iran not need carrier group.

Iran just need keep 21 miles quiet.

And world which decided to route three civilisation-critical supply chains through gap smaller than airport and call it 2%, start to discover what 2% really mean.

Zero domestic alternatives at scale.

This not oil crisis.

This global crisis hiding behind oil price.

Monkey open forum. New group:

HORMUZ CRISIS PLAYS — 500% POTENTIAL — WHO’S IN?

Monkey know this stupid.

Monkey hover over link.

Because what else monkey going to do?

Monkey can’t fix strait.

Monkey can’t call Tehran.

Monkey can’t manufacture gas from nothing or grow food without nitrogen or refine copper without acid.

Monkey can only watch number.

And pretend the same as control.

Because if no change, there be no more banana.

And this time…

We talking actual banana.