European Green Transition

Here we go again.

Good Morning Team.

I have a new company for your consideration.

European Green Transition is an AIM-listed company that has just acquired a profitable, cash-generating business that services over 900 onshore wind turbines across the UK and Ireland.

They didn’t build the turbines.

They don’t own the turbines.

They fix them, maintain them, upgrade them when they get old and monitor them remotely around the clock. Think of it like the NHS for wind turbines — essential, recurring and not something any turbine owner in their right mind is going to cancel.

They bought this business for a remarkably low price — £3.5 million — out of the liquidation of an Irish investment fund that had made some adventurous assumptions about yield.

They’ve since raised £7.5 million at 6p per share, cleared the bridge debt, and now sit debt-free with a clear runway to grow revenues from roughly £15 million today toward a stated medium-term target of £50 million with double-digit EBITDA margins.

That’s the elevator pitch.

If you need to know more, then read on.

Management Pedigree

Cathal Friel — Executive Chair & Co-Founder

Cathal is an Irish serial entrepreneur and the driving force behind EGT. This is his fifth IPO, which either tells you he’s deeply experienced or that he enjoys the paperwork.

Possibly both.

His track record is solid. He co-founded Amryt Pharma, which was ultimately acquired for $1.48 billion in cash in 2023. He was also a central figure at hVIVO (formerly Open Orphan), where early placing investors made anywhere between 5x and 10x at the peak — with Friel himself publicly noting he sold around half his stake at 30p having come in at much lower levels.

He is currently also running Poolbeg Pharma (POLB) alongside EGT, which is developing a preventative therapy for a severe side effect of cancer immunotherapies – with interim data from its clinical trial in multiple myeloma patients due this summer.

Jack Kelly — CFO

Jack Kelly is a Chartered Accountant who came through PwC Ireland’s M&A team before joining Friel’s broader Raglan Capital ecosystem.

He co-founded EGT alongside Friel and has been involved across hVIVO and Poolbeg Pharma. He’s knows the playbook and understands deal structure — the bridge financing architecture on the Earthmill acquisition, while complex, was clearly well designed.

David Broadbank — Managing Director of the O&M Business

David is arguably the most important person in the EGT story right now, and he’s the one who hasn’t done an IPO before.

He has spent 15 years at Earthmill, rising from Operations Manager to Managing Director, and was building 50 to 70 turbines a year at the company’s peak. He knows every nut and bolt of this business — literally. When he says the repowering pipeline is real, and that 2026 targets are achievable, he’s speaking from a position of operational knowledge rather than investor relations optimism.

His internal Earthmill target is to deliver over 20 repowers this year on top of the existing core business with average repower value of £450,000 - that’s £9 million repowering in addition to the existing business of £14 million. He said this on the record, on the investor call, with no apparent hesitation.

That is a bold number.

We’ll come back to it.

What Did They Actually Buy?

EGT acquired its core operating business from the court-appointed liquidators of Arena Capital Partners (ACP), an Irish investment fund vehicle.

ACP had raised €170 million in high-yield loan notes and deployed the capital into onshore wind farms across Europe, borrowing at roughly 8% while generating yields of around 4%.

It does not take a rocket scientist to work out how that might end, and as Friel put it on the investor call:

‘We thought there would be a situation at some point.’

There was.

ACP went into Irish examinership (the Irish equivalent of Chapter 11 in the US or administration in the UK) in spring 2025, that process failed, and it entered full liquidation late in the year.

Crucially — and this is important — the underlying O&M businesses were not the problem. They continued trading profitably throughout the parent company’s financial collapse. The turbine servicing contracts kept rolling, the engineers kept showing up, and the revenues kept coming in.

The chaos was entirely at the holding company level, driven by a capital structure mismatch rather than any operational failure.

EGT had been monitoring these businesses for 18 months before the liquidation created a buying opportunity. They moved quickly, used bridge financing to complete in an accelerated timeline as part of a competitive liquidation process, and secured the assets at what the market has broadly accepted was a very attractive price.

The Four Companies Acquired

This gets a tad complex.

Earthmill Maintenance Ltd (100% owned)

Earthmill is the engine of the group. Headquartered in Harrogate with regional depots in Scotland, Wales and Cornwall, it generated £12.7 million in revenue in 2025 and has a team of 72 operational professionals.

It services 750+ turbines across the UK, holds proprietary OEM intellectual property for Endurance wind turbines, and is the sole UK licence holder for Northern Power System turbines.

That IP ownership matters because it means Earthmill can fix Endurance turbines that nobody else in the UK legally can, which gives it a near-monopoly position on a significant slice of its own client base.

Services offered include contracted O&M, multi-brand turbine servicing (Endurance, NPS, Vestas), repowering and retrofit programmes, SCADA and precision engineering, and condition monitoring via Anemos.

Every time an engineer gets sent to site, every part fitted, every labour hour — it’s all chargeable on top of the base contract. This makes the recurring contract the floor and the repair and upgrade work, the upside.

WEP — Wind Energy Partnership Ltd (85% owned) & Silverford Engineering Ltd (85% owned)

WEP is based in Portlaoise in the Republic of Ireland, and Silverford is based in Dungannon in Northern Ireland. Together they provide an integrated O&M service across the entire island of Ireland, covering 140+ turbines and generating £1.95 million in revenue in 2025 with a team of 6 operational staff.

The Irish business is currently smaller but sits in front of what the company believes is a significant growth opportunity — more on that in the Ireland section below.

The remaining 15% of WEP and Silverford is owned by Tom Carlin, their founder. EGT has a clear plan to buy out his stake over the coming years, with David Broadbank stepping into a unified leadership role across both geographies.

Anemos Analytics Ltd (52% owned)

Anemos is the tech play within the portfolio — a Scottish condition monitoring and predictive analytics software company. It deploys tri-axial sensors on turbines to measure vibration, oil particulate contamination, and proximity, generating real-time early warning signals for component failure.

It’s currently deployed on around 90 turbines, with a target of 200 additional turbines through 2026-27.

The value proposition is straightforward: catch a failing bearing early and it’s a relatively inexpensive fix. Miss it and the consequential damage cascades — gearbox, generator, frame — and suddenly you’re looking at a repair bill that dwarfs what a monitoring subscription would have cost.

Anemos generated approximately £200,000 in its first year of trading (2025) and is already feeding Earthmill a pipeline of project work worth around that amount on top of its own revenues.

What makes Anemos interesting as a long-term asset is its portability. The sensors and analytics platform can go on anything that vibrates — and plenty of things vibrate. The company is currently in discussions with a shipping firm operating 38-39 coastal vessels around Europe.

It has track record in hydro schemes and can monitor remote generators. The wind turbine application is the first market; it need not be the last.

EGT intends to increase its stake in Anemos beyond 52% in due course - and sees significant growth and upside to scale Anemos in the coming months.

The Numbers

The O&M group generated the following in FY2025 (caveat, unaudited):

A few things to note here.

First, the 2025 EBITDA figure of £0.9 million is described as ‘adjusted’ — it excludes non-recurring costs associated with the parent company’s liquidation process.

The business was essentially operating inside a collapsing corporate structure for most of 2025, enduring cash sweeps from the struggling parent, legal uncertainty, and the general distraction of watching your owner go through examinership and then liquidation.

The fact it made any EBITDA at all in those circumstances is, as Friel put it on the call, ‘an absolute miracle.’

Second, the gross margin compression from FY24 to FY25 (from £5m to £4.4m on similar revenues) reflects those exceptional circumstances and the cost of sales pressure from the repowering work ramping up.

This is expected to normalise and then improve.

Third, the Anemos figures are excluded entirely from these numbers.

As Anemos grows, it layers on top.

What Did EGT Pay?

The total acquisition price was £3.5 million on a cash-free, debt-free basis. This was funded from EGT’s existing cash (£2.3 million as at December 2025) and £3 million in bridge financing.

On a 2024 EBITDA basis (the last audited year, £1.5m), EGT paid 2.3x EBITDA. On a 2025 adjusted EBITDA basis (£0.9m), the multiple was 3.9x.

For context: in October 2024, AIM-listed Renew Holdings acquired Full Circle — a comparable wind O&M business doing £25 million in revenue — for £50 million, representing approximately 10x EBITDA.

EGT paid 3.5x less in absolute terms for a business that was the joint market leader alongside Full Circle. Renew Holdings is, notably, Friel’s explicitly stated benchmark and model for what EGT is trying to build — a company that has seen its market cap grow roughly 5x in recent years to approximately £750 million.

Balance Sheet After The Fundraise

The £7.5 million fundraise (at 6p per share) was used to:

• Repay £1.5 million of the bridge facilities (Facility 2 and Facility 3)

• Convert the remaining £1.5 million (Roaring Waters facility) into equity at the placing price

• Strengthen the balance sheet and provide working capital

Post-fundraise, EGT is debt free — an important milestone.

The company also acquired approximately £3.95 million of strategic inventory (turbine components, blades, gearboxes, etc.) and £2.5 million of net working capital as part of the deal.

The inventory is key: a significant portion of this was effectively funded by customer deposits paid in advance for repowering projects.

Friel’s characterisation that the company ‘only paid £1 million’ for the operating business — once you net off the working capital and inventory received — has some logic to it, even if it’s an aggressive way of framing it.

Repowering Opportunity — The Growth Engine

This is where the story gets exciting. Nobody invests on AIM for the modest gains on offer thus far in this story.

What Is Repowering?

Repowering means taking out an old, smaller and less efficient turbine and replacing it with a newer, larger, more powerful one.

The economics for the turbine owner are compelling: a modern 660kW turbine installed for around £730,000 generates roughly £388,000 in annual energy revenue, compared to £175,000 from the 250kW machine it replaced.

Payback period: 3.5 years.

Remaining operational life after payback: 15-20 years.

Of essentially free electricity.

For Earthmill, a repowering project generates two revenue streams.

First, the installation itself — a typical contract should be worth around £450,000.

Second, the follow-on O&M contract for the new (larger) turbine, which commands approximately 80% more in annual servicing fees than the old machine. So every repowering win is both a project revenue event and a permanent uplift to the recurring revenue base.

Why Is The Opportunity Happening Now?

For nine years, the Conservative government maintained what was effectively a ban on new onshore wind planning permissions in England — a policy widely attributed to backbench pressure and a particular allergic reaction to wind turbines among rural Conservative voters.

This ban has been lifted by the Labour government.

The effect has been immediate. Turbine owners who have been sitting on ageing machines — unable to upgrade because they couldn’t get planning permission for a larger replacement — can now proceed. The backlog of pent-up demand is significant, and Earthmill sits directly in the path of it, with existing relationships across a portfolio of 900+ turbines.

Additionally, mainland Europe is currently undergoing a similar repowering cycle — replacing smaller turbines with larger ones. The smaller turbines coming down on the continent (often Vestas machines) are shipped back to Denmark, fully refurbished with a two-year warranty, and made available for redeployment in the UK and Ireland.

There are over 50,000 Vestas turbines globally — described on the call as ‘the workhorse of wind’ — and refurbished 850kW units paired with battery storage can now be installed for around £1.7 million, compared to roughly £5 million just five years ago.

In other words, the economics of distributed wind have transformed.

On top of all this, the UK government has just announced that it intends to allow farmers, schools and industrial users to install small onshore wind turbines without any planning permission at all.

This opens up an entirely new installation market that Earthmill, WEP and Silverford are specifically positioned to serve.

Pipeline Numbers

• 55 heads of terms signed for repowering projects, average contract value of about £450,000 each = £24.7 million of near-term revenue visibility

• 25 planning approvals already granted

• Project commencements and deposits received for 13 projects

• 3 repowers completed to date

• Circa 280 additional qualified prospects identified within the existing 900-turbine portfolio — representing a total potential pipeline value of £126 million

• Dave Broadbank noted on the call that by 2035, over 50% of the UK’s current onshore wind capacity will face repowering decisions

As a caveat, the £24.7 million figure represents heads of terms — signed, but not yet contracted in full. The £126 million represents the theoretical maximum value if all 280 qualified prospects convert.

However, this is a credible, quantifiable pipeline sitting within an existing client base — which as anyone who’s ever had a sales job will tell you, is very different from speculative new business development.

These are customers Earthmill already has relationships with, on turbines it already services, in an environment where the regulatory barrier to proceeding has just been removed.

Broadbank also made a point on the investor call that deserves emphasis: the repowering pipeline for 2026 is essentially already full.

Ireland Opportunity?

Ireland has traditionally focused its wind energy ambitions on large-scale offshore and onshore wind farms rather than distributed single or twin turbine installations.

That is now changing, and EGT believes it is sitting at the right place at the right time.

The company has identified over 100 rural food producers and enterprises in Ireland that are high energy users — chicken farmers, pig farmers, potato producers, cold storage operators and similar businesses that run energy-intensive operations in rural locations.

Each of these represents a potential turbine installation opportunity worth up to £1.7 million. The aggregate addressable market across these 100+ prospects stands at £170 million.

The two traditional blockers for distributed wind in Ireland have been grid connection requirements and planning approval timelines.

EGT’s proposed solution sidesteps both.

By deploying a single or twin Vestas 850kW turbine paired with 450kW battery storage, the system can go entirely off-grid — hooking directly into the enterprise’s electrical switchboard.

No grid connection required.

And because these are established rural employers with long community ties, planning objections are expected to be limited. Earthmill is already installing turbines in this configuration in the UK.

This is an early-stage opportunity — it doesn’t appear in any current revenue guidance — but it represents a credible medium-term growth vector that sits neatly within the existing capabilities of WEP and Silverford.

My childhood was farming. This will be popular.

The Quest for £50 Million

EGT has set a medium-term target of £50 million in revenue and double-digit EBITDA margins.

Here is how they plan to get there:

Step 1 — Organic growth and service expansion (£22m) Starting from the £14.7m FY25 base, the core O&M business grows through contract renewals, new O&M wins within the existing turbine fleet and incremental service upgrades including Anemos rollout.

Step 2 — Repowering (£37m) The repowering pipeline delivers project revenues and, crucially, permanently upgrades the O&M recurring revenue base as each larger replacement turbine is tied into a new 5-year service contract at materially higher rates.

The average repowering contract is worth £450,000 to Earthmill so it is quite easy to see how this can contribute significantly to revenue - with 55 HOTs signed and plans to increase this rapidly over the coming months as UK government policy incentivises turbine owners to repower.

Step 3 — M&A Small bolt-on acquisitions across the broader critical infrastructure sector — water, energy, transport and data centres — funded from operating cash flow and a debt facility that the directors believe will not exceed 2x EBITDA. Friel is explicit that there will be no further large equity fundraises to fund acquisitions. The M&A strategy is disciplined: pay 3-4x EBITDA, with 2x upfront and 1-2x deferred over two to three years.

Again, the comparator Friel references is Renew, which has grown its revenue and EBITDA at 10-15% per year, compounding steadily, and seen its market cap rise 5x.

EGT is not claiming it will be Renew Holdings. But it is explicitly copying the model: non-discretionary infrastructure services, long-term contracts, capital-light, cash-generative and a progressive dividend policy.

On The Dividend

EGT has committed to a progressive dividend policy starting from the first full financial year following completion of the acquisition, targeting annual dividend growth of approximately 5% per annum.

Friel is careful to clarify that the initial dividend will be limited (‘a very small, modest dividend’) and for a company at this stage of growth, the dividend is largely symbolic.

What it signals is a management team that intends to run a profitable, cash-returning business rather than an acquisition machine that perpetually reinvests (or, as it often the case, perpetually dilutes) shareholders.

Shareholder Register — Who’s In?

The shareholder register is sublime.

Raglan Road Capital (Cathal Friel’s vehicle) — 8.64% direct + 2.86% Friel personally

Friel has meaningful skin in the game, which is always a positive signal. His entity, Raglan Capital, also participated in the fundraise — subscribing for 3,333,333 new shares at the issue price of 6p, totalling £200,000.

This constituted a related party transaction under AIM Rule 13, approved by the independent directors in consultation with the nominated adviser, Panmure Liberum.

Raglan Capital is also the entity that provided Facility 2 of the bridge financing.

Roaring Waters Capital — 9.27%

Roaring Waters provided £1.5 million of bridge financing (Facility 1) — the tranche that carried no interest and automatically converted to equity at the placing price upon completion of the fundraise.

They also received warrants equal to 35% of the committed funds, exercisable at the placing price for six years. The conversion means Roaring Waters now holds approximately 9.27% of the enlarged share capital.

This is significant because a financing party that converted rather than being repaid is, in effect, voting with their capital that they believe the equity upside exceeds their cost of capital. They’re now long-term shareholders, not creditors seeking an exit.

Premier Miton — 8.994%

This is perhaps the most significant third-party validation in the entire EGT story. Premier Miton is a serious, established UK fund management group.

Their presence on the register means a professional investment team with resources to conduct proper due diligence looked at this company and decided to take a meaningful position.

Premier Miton’s smaller companies funds have a track record of spotting genuine growth businesses early on AIM. Their participation in the fundraise, which was 3x oversubscribed and saw over £15 million of orders, is a strong signal of institutional credibility.

The fundraise itself attracted demand from ‘quite a few institutions,’ according to Friel — enough that the raise was upsized from £5 million to £7.5 million and still turned away orders.

This is exceptional in the current market environment - and also explains why the share price has held so well post-raise. The capital that was scaled back is buying on market.

Non-Core Assets — Hidden Optionality

EGT retains two key exploration assets from its original portfolio that it is actively seeking to monetise. It’s non-core — the company is no longer a miner — but represents potential upside that isn’t priced into the core wind services investment case.

I think a buyer will be found before the year’s out.

For context, the Olserum project has been designated a Project of National Interest for rare earth elements (REEs) by the Swedish government — and remember, Sweden is a strong mining country.

EGT completed a 1,500-metre drill programme in 2024 that confirmed a district-scale REE system. The key licences have been extended to June 2029, and there is a rare earth processing facility in Estonia (NeoPerformance Materials) approximately four hours away, across the Baltic that could be used in any processing pathway.

EGT’s plan is to sell the asset — not develop it themselves — targeting a low single-digit upfront payment in millions, milestone payments as the new owner develops the mine, and ideally a royalty on future production.

EGT won’t spend another penny developing it — they’ll sell it and clip a royalty ticket.

As for the second asset? In 2025, EGT entered into an exclusive option agreement with Recovery Metals Cyprus for the potential sale of the Pajala Copper project in Sweden, with discussions ongoing to progress towards the sale of the project.

Why The Market May Be Underestimating This

A few things stand out to me as potentially underappreciated by the market:

The IP moat is real. Earthmill holds proprietary OEM IP for Endurance turbines and is the sole UK licence holder for Northern Power System turbines. For a significant portion of the 900+ turbines under management, there is no viable alternative service provider. That’s not a moat in the Silicon Valley sense, but it’s a strong competitive advantage in a fragmented market of small local operators and OEM-tied providers.

The cash flow model is unusual in a good way. Repowering customers pay substantial deposits upfront — £100,000 first, then £150,000 at the next milestone — before a turbine is even ordered. The business is getting paid before it spends. This is a capital-light dynamic for what looks on the surface like a capital-intensive infrastructure business.

The government policy tailwind is accelerating. Three separate policy developments in quick succession — the lifting of the onshore wind planning ban in summer 2025, the proposed removal of planning requirements for small turbines announced in March 2026, and the broader energy security agenda — all point in the same direction. The UK government wants more onshore wind. EGT is one of the few listed businesses with the operational platform to benefit directly from that policy direction.

Anemos is a free option. The condition monitoring platform is currently tiny — £200k revenue, 90 turbines deployed. But if it scales across the fleet, and expands into shipping, hydro or other verticals, and develops the white-label potential that management has identified, it could become a genuinely valuable software asset trading at a very different multiple (a tech multiple) to the core services business.

Right now it’s valued at zero.

The Bottom Line

EGT is not a speculative early-stage company with a PowerPoint and a dream. It has acquired a real, profitable, cash-generating business with genuine competitive advantages, a credible and quantifiable growth pipeline, an experienced management team with a track record of creating shareholder value, and institutional backing from serious people.

The investment case rests on three pillars:

1. That the core O&M business is a high-quality, recurring revenue platform that will compound steadily over time.

2. That the repowering opportunity is real, immediate and large enough to materially re-rate the revenue profile within 12-24 months.

3. That the broader critical infrastructure services roll-up strategy — modelled explicitly on Renew Holdings — can create a business worth multiples of today’s market capitalisation over a 3-5 year horizon.

Friel’s stated ambition for the share price in 2026 is a double or a triple from the placing price.

Whether or not that happens in the near term, what seems clear is that the underlying business — bought cheaply, growing fast, sitting in front of a significant policy tailwind, backed by serious institutions — looks materially undervalued at current levels if the execution holds.

I suspect he’ll get his wish.