Owe you a beer or three already on this one Charles! Given the expansion of the credit facility, what do you think the likelihood of dilution is (if at all), given that management are “front loading” a lot of the capex? Thanks.
I think dilution is unlikely - we’profitable, Suliaq will be self-financing and government support (whether European or US) is very much on the way. However, if a small placing is needed to tick them over worth noting every placing has been at almost no discount, so no fears there.
I've bought in on the basis of your thesis Charles. It certainly makes sense logically that the SP will rerate in advance of the actual step change in output reported by EOY. The management seem very competent and have been in region for years, so I see little execution risk (albeit not zero).
The biggest remaining risk IMO is the POG. If this should drop below $4k and establish a downwards trajectory, then the SP will probably front-run that, leverage works both ways.
Having said that I think the risk/reward here is good. The POG is totally out of the company's hands.
Amaroq is by their own disclosure completely dependent on fossil fuels for operations. With elevated oil prices and likely prolonged volatility in this oil and gas sector I see major risk here overlooked by many.
Amaroq stated plans to mitigate that risk through hydropower installations but these are all at concept stage and far from contribution in any meaningful manner.
There's less than 60,000 people on the island and rising fuel costs have been accounted for. There is very little demand for power as an economy - it's the same population as a country as a small UK town.
Their own sustainibility report states 1,99M litres of fuel consumption. Also they say this is likely to increase during their operational ramp up. Where did you read 'rising fuel costs are accounted for'? Current AISC numbers cant acount for rising fuel costs because there is a lag and we havent seen the impact yet
You'll note the AISC is forward facing for the calendar year, so it is accounted for. And Greenland imports roughly 230 million litres a year, this is not going to be an issue imho.
I'll buy you a good bottle of whiskey
Owe you a beer or three already on this one Charles! Given the expansion of the credit facility, what do you think the likelihood of dilution is (if at all), given that management are “front loading” a lot of the capex? Thanks.
I think dilution is unlikely - we’profitable, Suliaq will be self-financing and government support (whether European or US) is very much on the way. However, if a small placing is needed to tick them over worth noting every placing has been at almost no discount, so no fears there.
Fingers crossed 🍻
Beers on tap but you will have to get to BC Canada.
Thanks for the post..
Owe you more than a beer!
I've bought in on the basis of your thesis Charles. It certainly makes sense logically that the SP will rerate in advance of the actual step change in output reported by EOY. The management seem very competent and have been in region for years, so I see little execution risk (albeit not zero).
The biggest remaining risk IMO is the POG. If this should drop below $4k and establish a downwards trajectory, then the SP will probably front-run that, leverage works both ways.
Having said that I think the risk/reward here is good. The POG is totally out of the company's hands.
Ya; how can $5K be the floor when it's way under? No cred with that? Maybe meant $4K?
By the time Q4 hits.
Amaroq is by their own disclosure completely dependent on fossil fuels for operations. With elevated oil prices and likely prolonged volatility in this oil and gas sector I see major risk here overlooked by many.
Amaroq stated plans to mitigate that risk through hydropower installations but these are all at concept stage and far from contribution in any meaningful manner.
I am interested in your peoples views on this.
There's less than 60,000 people on the island and rising fuel costs have been accounted for. There is very little demand for power as an economy - it's the same population as a country as a small UK town.
No diesel issues until they go green.
Their own sustainibility report states 1,99M litres of fuel consumption. Also they say this is likely to increase during their operational ramp up. Where did you read 'rising fuel costs are accounted for'? Current AISC numbers cant acount for rising fuel costs because there is a lag and we havent seen the impact yet
You'll note the AISC is forward facing for the calendar year, so it is accounted for. And Greenland imports roughly 230 million litres a year, this is not going to be an issue imho.
Hope you are right, thanks for your reply Charles