Alien Metals

The gap widens

Good Morning Team.

A lot has happened in a couple of months.

The last time we looked at Alien, the company was trading at a deep discount to its implied asset value. The market cap sat at around £18 million against a core NAV closer to £38 million — a gap that was already difficult to justify on fundamentals alone.

It now trades at £13.5 million.

The assets, meanwhile, have materially improved. A maiden JORC resource has been confirmed. A development plan has been published. Phase 1 drilling at Munni Munni has validated the historic dataset.

This morning, two further RNSs landed — one confirming that Elizabeth Hill’s mineralised system is significantly larger than the maiden resource suggested, and one formalising the 2025 annual results.

Elizabeth Hill: From Exploration Story to Development Candidate

When Bruce Garlick took over at Alien, Elizabeth Hill was a historically significant silver system with no modern JORC resource and no clear path to production.

Now it has both — and the resource is already growing.

On 22 April, West Coast Silver published the inaugural JORC-compliant Mineral Resource Estimate: 2.79 million ounces of silver at 617 g/t, comprising 0.37 Moz Indicated and 2.42 Moz Inferred, reported above a 20 g/t cut-off.

To put the grade in context, high-grade silver is generally considered anything above 300-400 g/t. Bonanza grade is typically defined as above 500 g/t.

Elizabeth Hill’s MRE average is 617 g/t, and individual intercepts have returned grades in the thousands — including one interval at 33,107 g/t over 0.35 metres, a number so high the samples had to be sent to Canada for processing because Australian labs couldn’t handle the read.

The criticism — to the extent it was articulated — was that the resource tonnage was too small, or that the 2.79 Moz headline number wasn’t large enough to move the needle.

Bruce pushed back on this in our interview on 23 April.

The resource requires just 141,000 tonnes of ore to deliver 2.79 million ounces. In the context of Australian mining, where large gold and base metals operations routinely process two to three million tonnes per year, 141,000 tonnes is nothing.

The processing costs, the grinding, the chemicals, the infrastructure burden — all of it scales down. What looks like a small resource by headline ounce count is, in economic terms, potentially a very high-margin, low-capital operation.

Then on 6 May, West Coast published a full growth and development plan that made the near-term ambition explicit. The language used was direct: the highest-grade, lowest capital cost undeveloped silver project globally.

The plan outlines a shallow 130-metre open pit as the starter operation — low strip ratio, low capex, rapid payback profile. The project sits on a granted mining lease, which in Australia is a real advantage — obtaining one from scratch can take five years or more.

The Radio Hill processing plant is eight kilometres away and already has a gravity circuit suited to native silver recovery, potentially eliminating the need for a new tailings dam, which alone could save years of environmental approvals.

This morning’s drilling results suggest the resource they are building toward is considerably larger than the maiden estimate implied.

Assay results from the first 17 of 32 RC holes drilled at Elizabeth Hill North in May confirmed that silver mineralisation has been extended up to 70 metres north of the April MRE boundary. The mineralised system is open at depth and along strike, with multiple holes finishing in mineralisation within the Munni Munni Fault Zone.

The majority of new mineralisation lies entirely outside the April MRE — meaning it is additive, not a reinterpretation of what was already known.

The grades in this batch are lower than the 617 g/t MRE average — best intersections include 60 metres at 25 g/t from surface, 26 metres at 31 g/t, and a deeper hit of 2 metres at 96 g/t at 91 metres depth.

These are resource extension holes probing the northern margin of the system, not the high-grade core. The structural context is what matters here: lead mineralisation up to 1.66% has been intersected in one hole, which is spatially associated with higher-grade silver at Elizabeth Hill and suggests the fault zone carries more grade further along strike.

And hole 26WCRC023 — assays still pending — intersected 72 metres of altered fault zone, the widest intersection drilled to date at Elizabeth Hill North.

Assays for the remaining 15 holes are pending. Diamond drilling is now underway beneath holes that terminated in mineralisation. Economic studies of the near-surface mineralisation are progressing in parallel.

The 2.79 Moz figure was always described as a floor. This morning’s results reinforce that framing.

Alien retains 30% of the project, free-carried through to a decision to mine. It also holds 30.5 million West Coast Silver shares, representing 8.7% of the company. Every dollar of value created at Elizabeth Hill — through resource growth, grade improvement, development progress, or a re-rating of West Coast Silver’s share price — flows back to Alien without costing the company a penny.

Munni Munni: Institutional Money

If Elizabeth Hill is the near-term catalyst story, Munni Munni is the longer-term district-scale opportunity — and has had a busy few weeks.

The 7 May Phase 1 drilling results addressed perhaps the most important outstanding question about the project: does the historical dataset hold up under modern scrutiny?

The answer, based on twin hole drilling designed specifically to test this, is yes.

Historic intercepts were validated, which matters for the credibility of the existing non-JORC resource of 23.6 million tonnes at 2.9 g/t 4E for approximately 2.2 million ounces.

Beyond validation, the new results added exploration upside. The best new intercept — 2 metres at 8.37 g/t PGE alongside copper and nickel at 90 metres depth — represents some of the highest individual PGE grades seen at the Ferguson Reef.

The results also included broader mineralised envelopes across multiple holes, supporting a shift in GreenTech’s thinking toward bulk open-pit mining potential.

That is a significant strategic pivot. Open-pit bulk mining at a PGE project changes the economics compared to selective underground extraction — lower costs, higher throughput, more amenable to institutional financing.

GreenTech’s technical team needs mentioning as well. Dr Kevin Frost was part of the discovery team at Chalice Mining’s Julimar project — a world-class PGM and base metals system in Western Australia that grew from a grassroots discovery into a multi-billion dollar resource. Frost has already identified new advanced copper targets at Munni Munni.

The copper angle remains underappreciated. Copper is a structural growth story — data centres, electrification, grid infrastructure — and any meaningful copper system identified within the Munni Munni land package could re-rate the project independently of the PGE story.

Then on 12 May came the most significant piece of news in months. GreenTech raised A$7.5 million from institutional and sophisticated investors, bringing total fundraising to over A$12 million in six months.

Institutional money, with proper due diligence behind it, making a considered decision to back Munni Munni at scale.

Alien sold 9 million GRE shares into the raise at A$0.075, generating approximately A$700,000 in cash proceeds. The equity stake has reduced from 17.1% to approximately 10% of GreenTech’s issued capital — but the 30% project-level interest, free-carried all the way to bankable feasibility study, remains intact.

Iron Ore: Watch This Space

The Hancock, Vivash and Brockman iron ore assets have been the quiet corner of the portfolio for some time, and that may be about to change.

The annual results published this morning formalised what was already known about Hancock: an existing JORC resource of 8.4 million tonnes at 60% Fe, and an expanded exploration target of 12 to 27 million tonnes grading 58% to 62% Fe.

That exploration target range is an upgrade to the scale thesis — and in a sector where Pilbara iron ore exposure still commands attention, Alien should not need to give it away cheaply.

Bruce confirmed in our April interview that a site visit with Mark Pudovskis — formerly of BHP and part of the team that built Fenix Resources from a £5 million market cap to £500 million — was scheduled for around 10-12 May.

Pudovskis brings serious iron ore credentials and direct relationships with the major Pilbara operators.

The strategic options are broadly four: sell outright, joint venture, develop independently or pursue a mine-to-gate arrangement.

Bruce was candid that independent development without significant external capital is unlikely to make much sense. A trade sale or JV with a major therefore looks to be the most probable outcome.

A strategic update following the site visit should be imminent.

Any announcement here — particularly if it signals a cash transaction — would be additive to a balance sheet that is being managed carefully.

The Numbers

At £13.5 million market cap, Alien holds 30.5 million West Coast Silver shares and 37.9 million GreenTech shares. The annual results confirmed the terms under which these stakes were acquired: A$500,000 cash and 44.5 million West Coast Silver shares for the Elizabeth Hill JV; A$500,000 cash and 47 million GreenTech shares for the Munni Munni JV.

At current market prices, the two equity stakes together are approaching — or in some scenarios exceeding — Alien’s full market capitalisation.

That would mean the market is currently ascribing zero value to the 30% free-carried interest in Elizabeth Hill — a project whose mineralised footprint expanded materially this morning.

Zero value to the 30% free-carried interest in Munni Munni. And zero value to Hancock, which now carries an exploration target of up to 27 million tonnes.

That is the definition of a sum-of-the-parts discount.

In a more rational pricing environment — one where the equity stakes trade at market value and the project interests are assigned even a modest exploration premium — Alien’s implied NAV is considerably higher than £13.5 million. I estimated core NAV at around £38 million in February.

Three months of positive progress, a growing silver resource, validated PGM drilling, institutional backing, and an expanded iron ore target have not reduced that figure.

What to Watch

The near-term catalyst list has sharpened considerably:

Elizabeth Hill resource upgrade is now the primary near-term milestone. Assays from the remaining 15 RC holes are pending, including hole 26WCRC023 with its 72-metre fault zone intersection.

Diamond drilling is underway beneath holes that ended in mineralisation. A revised MRE incorporating the northern extension, followed by a scoping study, would be a material re-rating event.

Munni Munni JORC resource remains the primary target for GreenTech, with Phase 2 exploration funded by the A$7.5 million raise.

A resource that confirms or exceeds the historic 2.2 Moz figure under modern JORC standards would attract serious corporate interest.

Hancock strategic update following the May site visit. Any cash-generative transaction here strengthens the balance sheet and removes an asset the market currently values at close to nothing — despite an exploration target now reaching 27 million tonnes.

GreenTech copper results. Frost’s identified copper targets remain an underappreciated wildcard. One decent copper intersect could re-rate the entire district thesis.

The Bottom Line

Three months ago, Alien looked cheap at £18 million. At £13.5 million, with a maiden silver resource confirmed and already growing beyond its original boundaries, a development plan published, Munni Munni validated by institutional capital, and a potential iron ore transaction on the horizon, it looks cheaper still.

The market has an explanation for every discount. Liquidity, AIM sentiment, small cap risk, silver price uncertainty — there is always a reason to wait.

But the gap between what this portfolio is worth and what the market is pricing it at has not widened, not narrowed. At some point, either the assets prove their value through production and resource growth, or a corporate transaction does the re-rating that the open market has refused to do.

This morning’s drilling results are a reminder that the assets are not standing still.